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Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter

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  • J. Carter Braxton
  • Kyle F. Herkenhoff
  • Jonathan L. Rothbaum
  • Lawrence Schmidt

Abstract

For whom has earnings risk changed, and why? We answer these questions by combining the Kalman filter and EM-algorithm to estimate persistent and temporary earnings for every individual at every point in time. We apply our method to administrative earnings linked with survey data. We show that since the 1980s, persistent earnings risk rose by 20% for both employed and unemployed workers and the scarring effects of unemployment doubled. At the same time, temporary earnings risk declined. Using education and occupation codes, we show that rising persistent earnings risk is concentrated among high-skill workers and related to technology adoption.

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  • J. Carter Braxton & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Jonathan L. Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2021. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," NBER Working Papers 29567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29567
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Moffitt & John Abowd & Christopher Bollinger & Michael Carr & Charles Hokayem & Kevin McKinney & Emily Wiemers & Sisi Zhang & James Ziliak, 2022. "Reconciling Trends in U.S. Male Earnings Volatility: Results from Survey and Administrative Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 1-11, December.
    2. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig, 2022. "Neoclassical Growth with Long-Term One-Sided Commitment Contracts," NBER Working Papers 30518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Freund, L. B., 2022. "Superstar Teams: The Micro Origins and Macro Implications of Coworker Complementarities," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2276, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    5. J. Carter Braxton & Bledi Taska, 2023. "Technological Change and the Consequences of Job Loss," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(2), pages 279-316, February.
    6. Gu, Shijun & Jia, Chengcheng, 2023. "A comment on “wealth inequality and endogenous growth” by Byoungchan Lee," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 149-155.
    7. Dirk Krueger & Harald Uhlig, 2024. "Neoclassical Growth with Limited Commitment," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-023, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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