IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/iecrev/v66y2025i2p567-594.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Wage Risk, Employment Risk, And The Rise In Wage Inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Ariel Mecikovsky
  • Felix Wellschmied

Abstract

U.S. male residual wage inequality rose, and the employment rate fell between 1983 and 2013. Using a structural labor market model, we show that rising idiosyncratic wage risk and lower taxes at the bottom of the earnings distribution are the main forces behind rising wage inequality. The former contributes to the falling employment rate. Falling real wages and rising disability risk further depressed employment of workers without a college degree and rising exogenous job destruction depressed employment of workers with a college degree. Higher idiosyncratic risk entails large welfare losses with the largest losses among workers without a college degree.

Suggested Citation

  • Ariel Mecikovsky & Felix Wellschmied, 2025. "Wage Risk, Employment Risk, And The Rise In Wage Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 66(2), pages 567-594, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:66:y:2025:i:2:p:567-594
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12735
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12735
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/iere.12735?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 2013. "Does High Home-Ownership Impair the Labor Market?," NBER Working Papers 19079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Wolcott, Erin L., 2021. "Employment inequality: Why do the low-skilled work less now?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 161-177.
    4. Ziliak, James P. & Hardy, Bradley & Bollinger, Christopher, 2011. "Earnings volatility in America: Evidence from matched CPS," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 742-754.
    5. David Card & Jörg Heining & Patrick Kline, 2013. "Workplace Heterogeneity and the Rise of West German Wage Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(3), pages 967-1015.
    6. Lorenzo Cappellari & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2006. "Calculation of multivariate normal probabilities by simulation, with applications to maximum simulated likelihood estimation," Stata Journal, StataCorp LLC, vol. 6(2), pages 156-189, June.
    7. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1432-1467, September.
    8. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    9. Ken Burdett & Melvyn Coles, 2003. "Equilibrium Wage-Tenure Contracts," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1377-1404, September.
    10. Raj Chetty & Adam Guren & Day Manoli & Andrea Weber, 2013. "Does Indivisible Labor Explain the Difference between Micro and Macro Elasticities? A Meta-Analysis of Extensive Margin Elasticities," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 27(1), pages 1-56.
    11. Audra J. Bowlus & Jean-Marc Robin, 2004. "Twenty Years of Rising Inequality in U.S. Lifetime Labour Income Values," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 709-742.
    12. Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2006. "Changes in Labor Force Participation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 27-46, Summer.
    13. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson & Jae Song, 2014. "Trade Adjustment: Worker-Level Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(4), pages 1799-1860.
    14. Jae Song & David J Price & Fatih Guvenen & Nicholas Bloom & Till von Wachter, 2019. "Firming Up Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 1-50.
    15. Luigi Guiso & Luigi Pistaferri & Fabiano Schivardi, 2005. "Insurance within the Firm," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 1054-1087, October.
    16. Joseph G. Altonji & Anthony A. Smith Jr. & Ivan Vidangos, 2013. "Modeling Earnings Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1395-1454, July.
    17. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2017. "Optimal Tax Progressivity: An Analytical Framework," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(4), pages 1693-1754.
    18. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2295-2350, November.
    19. John M. Abowd & Francis Kramarz & David N. Margolis, 1999. "High Wage Workers and High Wage Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(2), pages 251-334, March.
    20. Attanasio, Orazio P & Weber, Guglielmo, 1995. "Is Consumption Growth Consistent with Intertemporal Optimization? Evidence from the Consumer Expenditure Survey," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1121-1157, December.
    21. Raj Chetty, 2006. "A New Method of Estimating Risk Aversion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1821-1834, December.
    22. Michaud, Amanda & Nelson, Jaeger & Wiczer, David, 2018. "Vocational considerations and trends in Social Security Disability," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 41-51.
    23. Hubbard, R Glenn & Skinner, Jonathan & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1995. "Precautionary Saving and Social Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(2), pages 360-399, April.
    24. Katz, Lawrence F. & Autor, David H., 1999. "Changes in the wage structure and earnings inequality," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 26, pages 1463-1555, Elsevier.
    25. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Post-Print hal-03458567, HAL.
    26. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    27. Browning, Martin & Crossley, Thomas F., 2001. "Unemployment insurance benefit levels and consumption changes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 1-23, April.
    28. James Mabli & Christopher Flinn, 2007. "On-the-Job Search, Minimum Wages, and Labor Market Outcomes in an Equilibrium Bargaining Framework," 2007 Meeting Papers 791, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    29. Robert H. Topel & Michael P. Ward, 1992. "Job Mobility and the Careers of Young Men," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 439-479.
    30. Mark Aguiar & Mark Bils & Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst, 2021. "Leisure Luxuries and the Labor Supply of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(2), pages 337-382.
    31. repec:mpr:mprres:6980 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Robert E. Hall & Andreas I. Mueller, 2015. "Wage Dispersion and Search Behavior," Economics Working Papers 15119, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    33. Tomaz Cajner & Isabel Cairo, 2013. "The Fading Dynamism of the US Labor Market: The Role of Demographics," 2013 Meeting Papers 1208, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    34. Jonathan Heathcote & Fabrizio Perri & Giovanni L. Violante, 2010. "Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States: 1967-2006," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(1), pages 15-51, January.
    35. Daron Acemoglu & Pascual Restrepo, 2020. "Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(6), pages 2188-2244.
    36. Sabelhaus, John & Song, Jae, 2010. "The great moderation in micro labor earnings," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(4), pages 391-403, May.
    37. Yonatan Ben-Shalom & Robert A. Moffitt & John Karl Scholz, "undated". "An Assessment of the Effectiveness of Anti-Poverty Programs in the United States," Mathematica Policy Research Reports cfc848ed6ab647bcb38ab47bb, Mathematica Policy Research.
    38. Richard Blundell & Luigi Pistaferri & Ian Preston, 2008. "Consumption Inequality and Partial Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1887-1921, December.
    39. repec:bla:econom:v:72:y:2005:i:3:p:431-452 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Burdett, Kenneth & Mortensen, Dale T, 1998. "Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 257-273, May.
    41. John Carter Braxton & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Jonathan Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2021. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    42. Marco Leonardi, 2017. "Job Mobility And Earnings Instability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 260-280, January.
    43. Robinson, Peter M, 1982. "On the Asymptotic Properties of Estimators of Models Containing Limited Dependent Variables," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(1), pages 27-41, January.
    44. Dirk Krueger & Fabrizio Perri, 2006. "Does Income Inequality Lead to Consumption Inequality? Evidence and Theory -super-1," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(1), pages 163-193.
    45. Hans G. Bloemen & Elena G. F. Stancanelli, 2005. "Financial Wealth, Consumption Smoothing and Income Shocks Arising from Job Loss," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(287), pages 431-452, August.
    46. David H. Autor & Lawrence F. Katz & Melissa S. Kearney, 2008. "Trends in U.S. Wage Inequality: Revising the Revisionists," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 300-323, May.
    47. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2006. "The Growth in the Social Security Disability Rolls: A Fiscal Crisis Unfolding," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 71-96, Summer.
    48. Katharine G. Abraham & Melissa S. Kearney, 2020. "Explaining the Decline in the US Employment-to-Population Ratio: A Review of the Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 585-643, September.
    49. Gruber, Jonathan, 1997. "The Consumption Smoothing Benefits of Unemployment Insurance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(1), pages 192-205, March.
    50. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Leena Rudanko, 2017. "Where Is Everybody? The Shrinking Labor Force Participation Rate," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 2(4), pages 17-24, October.
    51. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985085gkbp is not listed on IDEAS
    52. Gueorgui Kambourov & Iourii Manovskii, 2009. "Occupational Mobility and Wage Inequality," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(2), pages 731-759.
    53. Volker Tjaden & Felix Wellschmied, 2014. "Quantifying the Contribution of Search to Wage Inequality," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(1), pages 134-161, January.
    54. Holger M. Mueller & Paige P. Ouimet & Elena Simintzi, 2017. "Wage Inequality and Firm Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 379-383, May.
    55. Patricia M. Anderson & Bruce D. Meyer, 1997. "Unemployment Insurance Takeup Rates and the After-Tax Value of Benefits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 913-937.
    56. Mark Aguiar & Erik Hurst, 2005. "Consumption versus Expenditure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(5), pages 919-948, October.
    57. Abowd, John M & Card, David, 1989. "On the Covariance Structure of Earnings and Hours Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 411-445, March.
    58. Kai Liu, 2019. "Wage Risk and the Value of Job Mobility in Early Employment Careers," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 139-185.
    59. Hamish Low & Luigi Pistaferri, 2015. "Disability Insurance and the Dynamics of the Incentive Insurance Trade-Off," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 2986-3029, October.
    60. Flabbi, Luca & Leonardi, Marco, 2010. "Sources of earnings inequality: Estimates from an on-the-job search model of the US labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 832-854, August.
    61. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985085gkbp is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Intan Nurpratiwi & Syamsurijal Abdul Kadir & Yunisvita Yunisvita, 2019. "Factors that Influence Wages Differences in Formal Sector on Male and Female Workers in Palembang City," Business & Management Compass, University of Economics Varna, issue 4, pages 327-343.
    2. Intan NURPRATIWI & Syamsurijal AK & YUNISVITA, 2020. "Factors that influence wages differences in formal sector on male and female workers in Palembang City," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(622), S), pages 147-158, Spring.
    3. Helmut Herwartz & David Rodriguez-Justicia & Bernd Theilen, 2022. "A New Measure of Wage Risk: Occupation-Specific Evidence for Germany," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1427-1462, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Felix Wellschmied, 2021. "The welfare effects of asset mean‐testing income support," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(1), pages 217-249, January.
    2. Manuel Sanchez & Felix Wellschmied, 2020. "Modeling Life-Cycle Earnings Risk with Positive and Negative Shocks," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 103-126, July.
    3. Benjamin Friedrich & Costas Meghir & Lisa Laun & Luigi Pistaferri, 2018. "Earnings Dynamics and Firm-Level Shocks," 2018 Meeting Papers 536, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Flabbi, Luca & Leonardi, Marco, 2010. "Sources of earnings inequality: Estimates from an on-the-job search model of the US labor market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 832-854, August.
    5. David Card & Ana Rute Cardoso & Joerg Heining & Patrick Kline, 2018. "Firms and Labor Market Inequality: Evidence and Some Theory," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36(S1), pages 13-70.
    6. Kai Liu, 2010. "Wage Risk, On-the-job Search and Partial Insurance," 2010 Meeting Papers 1136, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Meghir, Costas & Pistaferri, Luigi, 2011. "Earnings, Consumption and Life Cycle Choices," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 773-854, Elsevier.
    8. Carneiro, Anabela & Portugal, Pedro & Raposo, Pedro & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2023. "The persistence of wages," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 233(2), pages 596-611.
    9. Hamish Low & Costas Meghir & Luigi Pistaferri, 2010. "Wage Risk and Employment Risk over the Life Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1432-1467, September.
    10. Joseph Altonji & Disa Hynsjo & Ivan Vidangos, 2023. "Individual Earnings and Family Income: Dynamics and Distribution," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 225-250, July.
    11. Marco Leonardi, 2017. "Job Mobility And Earnings Instability," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 260-280, January.
    12. Jesper Bagger & Fran?ois Fontaine & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2014. "Tenure, Experience, Human Capital, and Wages: A Tractable Equilibrium Search Model of Wage Dynamics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1551-1596, June.
    13. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Consumption and Labor Supply with Partial Insurance: An Analytical Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(7), pages 2075-2126, July.
    14. Bayer, Christian & Kuhn, Moritz, 2018. "Which Ladder to Climb? Decomposing Life Cycle Wage Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 13158, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    15. John Carter Braxton & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Jonathan Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2021. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    16. Federico Huneeus & Kory Kroft & Kevin Lim, 2021. "Earnings Inequality in Production Networks," NBER Working Papers 28424, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Jeremy Lise & Costas Meghir & Jean-Marc Robin, 2016. "Matching, Sorting and Wages," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 63-87, January.
    18. Gregory Veramendi, 2012. "Labor Market Dynamics: A Model of Search and Human Capital Accumulation," 2012 Meeting Papers 1059, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Jonathan Heathcote & Kjetil Storesletten & Giovanni L. Violante, 2009. "Quantitative Macroeconomics with Heterogeneous Households," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 319-354, May.
    20. Joseph G. Altonji & Anthony A. Smith Jr. & Ivan Vidangos, 2013. "Modeling Earnings Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 81(4), pages 1395-1454, July.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:66:y:2025:i:2:p:567-594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deupaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.