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The Liquidity Channel of Fiscal Policy

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  • Christian Bayer
  • Benjamin Born
  • Ralph Luetticke

Abstract

We provide evidence that expansionary fiscal policy lowers return differences between public debt and less liquid assets—the liquidity premium. We rationalize this finding in an estimated heterogeneous-agent New-Keynesian model with incomplete markets and portfolio choice, in which public debt affects private liquidity. This liquidity channel stabilizes fixed-capital investment. We then quantify the long-run effects of higher public debt and find little crowding out of capital, but a sizable decline of the liquidity premium, which increases the fiscal burden of debt. We show that the revenue-maximizing level of public debt is positive and has increased to 60 percent of GDP post-2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke, 2021. "The Liquidity Channel of Fiscal Policy," ifo Working Paper Series 351, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifowps:_351
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    5. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke & Gernot J Müller, 2023. "The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1318-1347.
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    8. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Schabert, Andreas, 2022. "Why are fiscal multipliers moderate even under monetary accommodation?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Max Ole Liemen & Olaf Posch, 2022. "FTPL and the Maturity Structure of Government Debt in the New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9840, CESifo.
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    11. Macaulay, Alistair, 2021. "The attention trap: Rational inattention, inequality, and fiscal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    12. Anna Belianska & Aurélien Eyquem & Céline Poilly, 2021. "The Transmission Channels of Government Spending Uncertainty," AMSE Working Papers 2115, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    13. Andras Lengyel, 2022. "Treasury Supply Shocks and the Term Structure of Interest Rates in the UK," MNB Working Papers 2022/6, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    14. Oliver Pfäuti & Fabian Seyrich, 2022. "A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2022_334, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    15. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Müller, Georg & Papadopoulou, Niki, 2023. "Fiscal multipliers within the euro area in the context of sovereign risk and bank fragility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    16. Christian Bredemeier & Falko Juessen & Andreas Schabert, 2021. "Why Are Fiscal Multipliers Moderate Even Under Monetary Accommodation?," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 074, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    17. Guillermo Santos, 2022. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with preference over safe assets," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2022021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; fiscal policy; HANK; incomplete markets; liquidity premium; public debt;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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