IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed017/1383.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Fiscal Multiplier

Author

Listed:
  • Kurt Mitman

    (Stockholm University)

  • Iourii Manovskii

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Marcus Hagedorn

    (University of Oslo)

Abstract

This paper studies the size of the fiscal multiplier in a model with incomplete markets and rigid prices and wages. Allowing for incomplete markets instead of complete markets---the prevalent assumption in the literature---comes with two advantages. First, the incomplete markets model delivers a realistic distribution of the marginal propensity to consume across the population, whereas all households counterfactually behave according to the permanent income hypothesis if markets are complete. Second, in our model the response of prices, output, consumption and employment is uniquely determined by fiscal policy for any monetary policy including the zero-lower bound (ZLB) as opposed to most of the previous literature, where an infinite number of equilibria exists, leaving the researcher to arbitrarily pick one. Our preliminary findings indicate that the impact multiplier is quite large between 2 and 3 depending on whether tax or deficit financing is used and increase to values above 3 in a liquidity trap.

Suggested Citation

  • Kurt Mitman & Iourii Manovskii & Marcus Hagedorn, 2017. "The Fiscal Multiplier," 2017 Meeting Papers 1383, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1383
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://economicdynamics.org/meetpapers/2017/paper_1383.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hagedorn, Marcus, 2016. "A Demand Theory of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 11364, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2008. "Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 162-196, May.
    3. Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Fiscal Policy with Heterogeneous Agents and Incomplete Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(1), pages 161-188.
    4. Axelle Ferriere & Gaston Navarro, 2013. "The Heterogeneous Effects of Government Spending: It's All About Taxes," Working Papers 13-18, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
    5. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    6. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    7. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    8. Emmanuel Farhi & Ivan Werning, "undated". "Fiscal Multipliers: Liquidity Traps and Currency Unions," Working Paper 78556, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    9. Bill Dupor & Marios Karabarbounis & Marianna Kudlyak & M. Saif Mehkari, 2018. "Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier," Working Paper Series 2018-4, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. S. Rao Aiyagari, 1994. "Uninsured Idiosyncratic Risk and Aggregate Saving," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(3), pages 659-684.
    11. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    12. Christian Bayer & Ralph Luetticke & Lien Pham‐Dao & Volker Tjaden, 2019. "Precautionary Savings, Illiquid Assets, and the Aggregate Consequences of Shocks to Household Income Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(1), pages 255-290, January.
    13. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    14. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    15. Christopher J. Erceg & Dale W. Henderson & Andrew T. Levin, 2019. "Optimal Monetary Policy with Staggered Wage and Price Contracts," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 52(4), pages 537-571.
    16. Cochrane, John H., 2017. "The new-Keynesian liquidity trap," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 47-63.
    17. Nils Gornemann & Keith Kuester & Makoto Nakajima, 2012. "Monetary policy with heterogeneous agents," Working Papers 12-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    18. Janice Eberly & Sergio Rebelo & Nicolas Vincent, 2008. "Investment and Value: A Neoclassical Benchmark," Cahiers de recherche 08-03, HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée.
    19. Ravn, Morten O. & Sterk, Vincent, 2017. "Job uncertainty and deep recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 125-141.
    20. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Microeconomic Heterogeneity and Macroeconomic Shocks," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 167-194, Summer.
    21. Brinca, Pedro & Holter, Hans A. & Krusell, Per & Malafry, Laurence, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers in the 21st century," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 53-69.
    22. Rupert, Peter & Šustek, Roman, 2019. "On the mechanics of New-Keynesian models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 53-69.
    23. Matthew Rognlie & Ludwig Straub & Adrien Auclert, 2017. "The Intertemporal Keynesian Cross," 2017 Meeting Papers 1587, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    24. Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
    25. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "A Model of the Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus Payments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(4), pages 1199-1239, July.
    26. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    27. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2012. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 50-64.
    28. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    29. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    30. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G, 1997. "Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 249-283, April.
    31. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
    32. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    33. Wouter Den Haan & Pontus Rendahl & Markus Riegler, 2015. "Unemployment (Fears) and Deflationary Spirals," Discussion Papers 1521, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    34. J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), 2016. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2, December.
    35. Erosa, Andres & Ventura, Gustavo, 2002. "On inflation as a regressive consumption tax," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 761-795, May.
    36. Huggett, Mark, 1993. "The risk-free rate in heterogeneous-agent incomplete-insurance economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(5-6), pages 953-969.
    37. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Rendahl, Pontus & Riegler, Markus, 2015. "Unemployment (fears) and deflationary spirals," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86288, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hagedorn, Marcus & Luo, Jinfeng & Manovskii, Iourii & Mitman, Kurt, 2019. "Forward guidance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 1-23.
    2. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    3. de Ferra, Sergio & Mitman, Kurt & Romei, Federica, 2020. "Household heterogeneity and the transmission of foreign shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Ralph Luetticke, 2021. "Transmission of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, April.
    5. Hagedorn, Marcus, 2018. "Prices and Inflation when Government Bonds are Net Wealth," CEPR Discussion Papers 12769, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kopiec, Paweł, 2020. "Employment prospects and the propagation of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    7. Bayer, Christian & Born, Benjamin & Luetticke, Ralph, 2020. "The Liquidity Channel of Fiscal Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 14883, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2018. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 697-743, March.
    9. Kopiec, Pawel, 2019. "Household Heterogeneity and the Value of Government Spending Multiplier: an Analytical Characterization," MPRA Paper 93499, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    11. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2020. "The New Keynesian cross," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 90-108.
    12. Christian Bayer & Ralph Luetticke, 2019. "Shocks, Frictions, and Inequality in US Business Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Ruediger Bachmann & Jinhui Bai & Minjoon Lee & Fudong Zhang, 2020. "The Welfare and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Volatility: a Quantitative Evaluation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 38, pages 127-153, October.
    14. Galo Nuño & Carlos Thomas, 2016. "Optimal monetary policy with heterogeneous agents (Updated September 2019)," Working Papers 1624, Banco de España, revised Sep 2019.
    15. Adrien Auclert & Ludwig Straub & Matthew Rognlie, 2019. "Micro Jumps, Macro Humps: monetary policy and business cycles in an estimated HANK model," 2019 Meeting Papers 1449, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Matthew Rognlie & Adrien Auclert, 2016. "Inequality and Aggregate Demand," 2016 Meeting Papers 1353, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    18. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 843-921, Elsevier.
    19. Marcus Hagedorn, 2016. "A Demand Theory of the Price Level," 2016 Meeting Papers 941, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Auclert, Adrien & Bardóczy, Bence & Rognlie, Matthew, 2020. "MPCs, MPEs and Multipliers: A Trilemma for New Keynesian Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14977, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed017:1383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.