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Fiscal Multipliers in the 21st Century

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Brinca
  • Hans Holter
  • Per Krusell
  • Laurence Malafry

Abstract

The recent experience of a Great Recession has brought the effectiveness of fiscal policy back into focus. Fiscal multipliers do, however, vary greatly over time and place. Running VARs for a large number of countries, we document a strong correlation between wealth inequality and the magnitude of fiscal multipliers. To explain this finding, we develop a life-cycle, overlapping generations economy with uninsurable labor market risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of a number of OECD economies, including the distribution of wages and wealth, social security, taxes and debt and study the effects of changing policies and various forms of inequality on the fiscal multiplier. We find that the fiscal multiplier is highly sensitive to the fraction of the population who face binding credit constraints and also negatively related to the average wealth level in the economy. This explains the correlation between wealth inequality and fiscal multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Brinca & Hans Holter & Per Krusell & Laurence Malafry, 2014. "Fiscal Multipliers in the 21st Century," 2014 Papers pbr150, Job Market Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:jmp:jm2014:pbr150
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Per Krusell & Anthony Smith & Joachim Hubmer, 2015. "The historical evolution of the wealth distribution: A quantitative-theoretic investigation," 2015 Meeting Papers 1406, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo & Matthes, Christian, 2015. "Approximating Time Varying Structural Models With Time Invariant Structures," Working Paper 15-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Pedro Brinca & Miguel H. Ferreira & Francesco Franco & Hans A. Holter & Laurence Malafry, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation Programs and Income Inequality," CeBER Working Papers 2017-11, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    4. Krueger, D. & Mitman, K. & Perri, F., 2016. "Macroeconomics and Household Heterogeneity," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    5. Emily Anderson & Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1877-1888, December.
    6. Kurt Mitman & Iourii Manovskii & Marcus Hagedorn, 2017. "The Fiscal Multiplier," 2017 Meeting Papers 1383, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Lancastre, Manuel, 2016. "Inequality and Real Interest Rates," MPRA Paper 85047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 923-944, November.
    9. António R. Antunes & Valerio Ercolani, 2016. "Public debt expansions and the dynamics of the household borrowing constraint," Working Papers w201618, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    10. repec:eee:dyncon:v:90:y:2018:i:c:p:45-75 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Burkhard Heer & Christian Scharrer, 2016. "The Burden of Unanticipated Government Spending," CESifo Working Paper Series 5876, CESifo Group Munich.
    12. Pfammatter, Andrea Corina, 2015. "Do differences in international labor mobility lead to differences in the fiscal multiplier? A theoretical approach," MPRA Paper 68955, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Bredemeier, Christian & Juessen, Falko & Winkler, Roland, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and Occupational Employment Dynamics," IZA Discussion Papers 10466, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    14. Manuel, Lancastre, 2016. "Age Milestones and Low Interest Rates, an Analytic Approach," MPRA Paper 85046, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Torben M. Andersen, 2016. "Automatic stabilizers—the intersection of labour market and fiscal policies," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-18, December.
    16. repec:eee:inecon:v:112:y:2018:i:c:p:123-133 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. George Chouliarakis & Tadeusz Gwiazdowski & Sophia Lazaretou, 2016. "The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output in Times of Crisis and Prosperity: Historical Evidence From Greece ," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 230, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    18. Javier Andres & Jose E. Bosca & Javier Ferri & Cristina Fuentes-Albero, 2018. "Household's Balance Sheets and the Effect of Fiscal Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-012, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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