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Fiscal consolidation programs and income inequality

Author

Listed:
  • Pedro Brinca
  • Miguel H. Ferreira
  • Francesco Franco
  • Hans A. Holter
  • Laurence Malafry

Abstract

Following the Great Recession, many European countries implemented fiscal consolidation policies aimed at reducing government debt. Using three independent data sources and three different empirical approaches, we document a strong positive relationship between higher income inequality and stronger recessive impacts of fiscal consolidation programs across time and place. To explain this finding, we develop a life-cycle, overlapping generations economy with uninsurable labor market risk. We calibrate our model to match key characteristics of a number of European economies, including the distribution of wages and wealth, social security, taxes and debt, and study the effects of fiscal consolidation programs. We find that higher income risk induces precautionary savings behavior, which decreases the proportion of credit-constrained agents in the economy. Credit-constrained agents have less elastic labor supply responses to fiscal consolidation achieved through either tax hikes or public spending cuts, and this explains the relationship between income inequality and the impact of fiscal consolidation programs. Our model produces a cross-country correlation between inequality and the fiscal consolidation multipliers, which is quite similar to that in the data.

Suggested Citation

  • Pedro Brinca & Miguel H. Ferreira & Francesco Franco & Hans A. Holter & Laurence Malafry, 2017. "Fiscal consolidation programs and income inequality," Nova SBE Working Paper Series wp617, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:unl:unlfep:wp617
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    Cited by:

    1. Deniz Sevinc & Edgar Mata Flores & Simon Collinson, 2020. "Are there inequality spillovers? Evidence through a modified inequality measure and European dynamics of inequality," Working Papers 545, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    2. Brinca, Pedro & Duarte, João B. & Holter, Hans A. & Oliveira, João G., 2019. "Investment-Specific Technological Change, Taxation and Inequality in the U.S," MPRA Paper 91960, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Fonseca, Miguel, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations: Welfare Effects of the Adjustment Speed," MPRA Paper 98902, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Mar 2020.
    4. Miranda-Pinto, Jorge & Murphy, Daniel & Walsh, Kieran James & Young, Eric R., 2023. "Saving constraints, inequality, and the credit market response to fiscal stimulus," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Kopiec, Paweł, 2020. "Employment prospects and the propagation of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    6. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri & Cristina Fuentes‐Albero, 2022. "Households' Balance Sheets and the Effect of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 737-778, June.
    7. Bernardino, Tiago, 2019. "Asset Liquidity and Fiscal Consolidation Programs," MPRA Paper 93903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Vaz de Castro, Afonso, 2022. "Risk Aversion and Recessive Impacts of Austerity," MPRA Paper 111875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Freitas, Bruno, 2020. "Labour Share Heterogeneity and Fiscal Consolidation Programs," MPRA Paper 98973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Nóbrega, Valter, 2020. "Optimal Taxation and Investment-Specific Technological Change," MPRA Paper 98917, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pedro Brinca & Miguel Faria-e-Castro & Miguel H. Ferreira & Hans Holter, 2019. "The Nonlinear Effects of Fiscal Policy," Working Papers 2019-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Oct 2023.
    12. Sá, Diogo, 2022. "Liquidity constraints and fiscal multipliers," MPRA Paper 112132, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Kopiec, Paweł, 2022. "The government spending multiplier in the Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    14. Karamysheva, Madina & Skrobotov, Anton, 2022. "Do we reject restrictions identifying fiscal shocks? identification based on non-Gaussian innovations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Xiaoshan Chen & Spyridon Lazarakis & Petros Varthalitis, 2023. "Debt targets and fiscal consolidation in a two-country HANK model for the Euro Area," Working Papers 374162075, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    16. De Dominicis, Piero, 2020. "Routinization and Covid-19: a comparison between United States and Portugal," MPRA Paper 101003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Chen, Xiaoshan & Leith, Campbell & Ricci, Mattia, 2023. "Evaluating fiscal policy reforms using the fiscal frontier," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    18. Zsurkis, Gabriel & Nicolau, João & Rodrigues, Paulo M. M, 2021. "The expected time to cross a threshold and its determinants: a simple and flexible framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Ferrreira, Ana Melissa, 2019. "Skill-Biased Technological Change and Inequality in the U.S," MPRA Paper 93914, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Paweł Kopiec, 2022. "The Aggregate and Distributional Effects of Fiscal Stimuli," KAE Working Papers 2022-070, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    21. Coelho, José, 2020. "Universal basic income and skill-biased technological change," MPRA Paper 99195, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Mar 2020.
    22. Xiaoshan Chen & Spyridon Lazarakis & Petros Varthalitis, 2023. "Debt targets and fiscal consolidation in a two country HANK model: the case of Euro Area," Working Papers 2023_02, Durham University Business School.
    23. Vedor, Bernardo, 2022. "Investment-Specific Technological Change and Universal Basic Income in the U.S," MPRA Paper 111675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Santos, Mariana, 2020. "The impact of labor income tax progressivity on the fiscal multipliers in the context of fiscal consolidation programs," MPRA Paper 98736, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Kopiec, Pawel, 2019. "Household Heterogeneity and the Value of Government Spending Multiplier: an Analytical Characterization," MPRA Paper 93499, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; income inequality; fiscal multipliers; public debt; income risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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