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Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?

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  • Huidrom,Raju
  • Kose,Ayhan
  • Lim,Jamus Jerome
  • Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte

Abstract

The fiscal position can affect fiscal multipliers through two channels. Through the Ricardian channel, households reduce consumption in anticipation of future fiscal adjustments when fiscal stimulus is implemented from a weak fiscal position. Through the interest rate channel, fiscal stimulus from a weak fiscal position heightens investors'concerns about sovereign credit risk, raises economy-wide borrowing cost, and reduces private domestic demand. The paper documents empirically the relevance of these two channels using an Interactive Panel Vector Auto Regression model. It finds that fiscal multipliers tend to be smaller when fiscal positions are weak than strong.

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  • Huidrom,Raju & Kose,Ayhan & Lim,Jamus Jerome & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte, 2019. "Why Do Fiscal Multipliers Depend on Fiscal Positions?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8784, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:8784
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    Cited by:

    1. Luca Metelli & Kevin Pallara, 2020. "Fiscal space and the size of the fiscal multiplier," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1293, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2020. "The political economy of fiscal procyclicality," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Mr. Alejandro Izquierdo & Mr. Ruy Lama & Guillermo Javier Vuletin & Juan Pablo Medina & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Jorge Puig & Carlos Vegh, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Exploration," IMF Working Papers 2019/289, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alejandro Izquierdo & Ruy E. Lama & Juan Pablo Medina & Jorge P. Puig & Daniel Riera-Crichton & Carlos A. Vegh & Guillermo Vuletin, 2019. "Is the Public Investment Multiplier Higher in Developing Countries? An Empirical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 26478, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Marie-Pierre HORY & Grégory LEVIEUGE & Daria ONORI, 2021. "Public spending, currency mismatch and financial frictions," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2873, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    6. Tan Ngoc Vu & Chi Minh Ho & Thang Cong Nguyen & Duc Hong Vo, 2020. "The Determinants of Risk Transmission between Oil and Agricultural Prices: An IPVAR Approach," Agriculture, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 10(4), pages 1-14, April.
    7. Dennis Bonam & Paul Konietschke, 2020. "Tax multipliers across the business cycle," DNB Working Papers 699, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    8. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2020. "Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In The United States And Brazil: Svar Approach," Working Papers REM 2020/0150, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Raut, Dirghau & Raju, Swati, 2019. "Size of Expenditure Multipliers for Indian States: Does the Level of Income and Public Debt Matter?," MPRA Paper 104947, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public Finance Decentralization and Poverty Reduction; Macro-Fiscal Policy; Public Sector Economics; Economic Adjustment and Lending; Macroeconomics and Economic Growth; Economic Policy; Institutions and Governance; Fiscal&Monetary Policy; Macroeconomic Management; Financial Crisis Management&Restructuring;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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