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How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?

  • Ilzetzki, Ethan
  • Mendoza, Enrique G.
  • Végh, Carlos A.

Contributing to the debate on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal stimuli, we show that the impact of government expenditure shocks depends crucially on key country characteristics, such as the level of development, exchange rate regime, openness to trade, and public indebtedness. Based on a novel quarterly dataset of government expenditure in 44 countries, we find that (i) the output effect of an increase in government consumption is larger in industrial than in developing countries; (ii) the fiscal multiplier is relatively large in economies operating under predetermined exchange rates but is zero in economies operating under flexible exchange rates; (iii) fiscal multipliers in open economies are smaller than in closed economies; (iv) fiscal multipliers in high-debt countries are negative.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030439321200116X
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Monetary Economics.

Volume (Year): 60 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 239-254

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Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:60:y:2013:i:2:p:239-254
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2012.10.011
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505566

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  12. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2011. "Fiscal policy and debt dynamics in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5666, The World Bank.
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  30. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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