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Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?

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  • Ramey, Valerie A

Abstract

This paper takes stock of what we have learned from the “Renaissance” in fiscal research in the ten years since the financial crisis. I first discuss the new innovations in methodology and various strengths and weaknesses of the main approaches to estimating fiscal multipliers. Reviewing the estimates, I come to the surprising conclusion that the bulk of the estimates for average spending and tax change multipliers lie in a fairly narrow range, 0.6 to 1 for spending multipliers and -2 to -3 for tax change multipliers. However, I identify economic circumstances in which multipliers lie outside those ranges. Finally, I review the debate on whether multipliers were higher for the 2009 Obama stimulus spending in the United States or for fiscal consolidations in Europe.

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  • Ramey, Valerie A, 2019. "Ten Years After the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt6cd687wc, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt6cd687wc
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    Keywords

    Economics;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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