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State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity

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  • Cloyne, James
  • Jordà , Ã’scar
  • Taylor, Alan M.

Abstract

An impulse response is the dynamic average effect of an intervention across horizons. We use the well-known Kitagawa-Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition to explore a response’s heterogeneity over time and over states of the economy. This can be implemented with a simple extension to the usual local projection specification that nevertheless keeps the model linear in parameters. Using our new decomposition-based approach, we show how to unpack heterogeneity in the fiscal multiplier, an object that at any point in time may depend on a number of potentially correlated factors, including existing economic conditions and the monetary response. In our application, the fiscal multiplier varies considerably with monetary policy: it can be as small as zero, or as large as 2, depending on the degree of monetary offset.

Suggested Citation

  • Cloyne, James & Jordà , Ã’scar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:17903
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodnyansky, A. & Timmer, Y. & Yago, N., 2023. "Intervening against the Fed," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2357, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Jordà, Òscar & Nechio, Fernanda, 2023. "Inflation and wage growth since the pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    4. Bertille Antoine & Otilia Boldea & Niccolo Zaccaria, 2024. "Efficient two-sample instrumental variable estimators with change points and near-weak identification," Papers 2406.17056, arXiv.org.
    5. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2024. "Local Projections," NBER Working Papers 32822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Pesso, Tom, 2024. "Fiscal policy and inflation: accounting for non-linearities in government debt," Working Paper Series 2996, European Central Bank.
    7. Juvenal, Luciana & Petrella, Ivan, 2024. "Reprint of “Unveiling the dance of commodity prices and the global financial cycle”," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    8. Adolfsen, Jakob Feveile & Ferrari Minesso, Massimo & Mork, Jente Esther & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "Gas price shocks and euro area inflation," Working Paper Series 2905, European Central Bank.
    9. Schroeder, Christofer & Stracca, Livio, 2023. "Pollution havens? Carbon taxes, globalization, and the geography of emissions," Working Paper Series 2862, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal multiplier; Monetary offset;

    JEL classification:

    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • C99 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Other
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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