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Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions

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  • Canzoneri, Matthew B
  • Collard, Fabrice
  • Dellas, Harris
  • Diba, Behzad

Abstract

The Great Recession, and the fiscal response to it, has revived interest in the size of fiscal multipliers. Standard business cycle models have difficulties generating multipliers greater than one. And they also cannot produce any significant state-dependence in the size of the multipliers over the business cycle. In this paper we employ a variant of the Curdia-Woodford model of costly financial intermediation and show that fiscal multipliers can be strongly state dependent in a countercyclical manner. In particular, a fiscal expansion during a recession may lead to multiplier values exceeding two, while a similar expansion during an economic boom would produce multipliers falling short of unity. This pattern obtains if the spread (the financial friction) is more sensitive to fiscal policy during recessions than during expansions, a feature that is present in the data. Our results are consistent with recent empirical work documenting the state contingency of multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Canzoneri, Matthew B & Collard, Fabrice & Dellas, Harris & Diba, Behzad, 2015. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recessions," CEPR Discussion Papers 10353, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10353
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tommaso Ferraresi & Andrea Roventini & Willi Semmler, 2016. "Macroeconomic regimes, technological shocks and employment dynamics," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-19, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2015. "Time varying fiscal multipliers in an agent-based model with credit rationing," Sciences Po publications 2015-25, Sciences Po.
    3. repec:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:54-87 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:eecrev:v:100:y:2017:i:c:p:293-317 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
    6. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
    7. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:524-538 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," BIS Working Papers 553, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Hoi Wai Jackie Cheng & Ingo Pitterle, 2018. "Towards a more comprehensive assessment of fiscal space," Working Papers 153, United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs.
    10. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:71:y:2017:i:3:a:66441 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2014. "Fiscal Policy And Lending Relationships," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(2), pages 696-712, April.
    12. Kurt Kratena & Gerhard Streicher, 2017. "Fiscal Policy Multipliers and Spillovers in a Multi-Regional Macroeconomic Input-Output Model," WIFO Working Papers 540, WIFO.
    13. Ricardo Silva & Vitor Manuel Carvalho & Ana Paula Ribeiro, 2013. "How large are fiscal multipliers? A panel-data VAR approach for the Euro area," FEP Working Papers 500, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    14. repec:oup:cesifo:v:63:y:2017:i:3:p:295-316. is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Shafik Hebous & Tom Zimmermann, 2016. "Can Government Demand Stimulate Private Investment? Evidence from U.S. Federal Procurement," IMF Working Papers 16/60, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Marco Riguzzi, 2014. "Economic Openness and Fiscal Multipliers," Diskussionsschriften dp1406, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    17. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    18. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(5), pages 923-944, November.
    19. Boubaker, Sabri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Interventions at the Zero Lower Bound," MPRA Paper 84673, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Aug 2017.
    20. repec:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/696277 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Nicoletta Batini & Luc Eyraud & Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 14/93, International Monetary Fund.
    22. repec:eee:ecmode:v:68:y:2018:i:c:p:372-387 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
    24. Julio A. CARRILLO & Celine POILLY, 2010. "On the Recovery Path during a Liquidity Trap: Do Financial Frictions Matter for Fiscal Multipliers?," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2010034, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    25. Kollintzas, Tryphon & Tsoukalas, Konstantinos, 2015. "Bank and Sovereign Risk Interdependence in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 10485, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cyclicality; financial frictions; government spending multipliers;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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