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What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries

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  • Banerjee, Ryan
  • Zampolli, Fabrizio

Abstract

We investigate how the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on output and employment vary with the state of the business cycle, monetary policy, public debt, the current account, and private credit. By examining the response of a large number of variables, we are also able to shed light on the transmission channels of fiscal policy. Our main finding is that short-term output multipliers are below unity, even in states in which multipliers are expected to be larger (eg when the output gap is negative or monetary policy tight). Key offsetting factors that reduce the size of multipliers and explain differences across states are the extent to which the external sector improves and monetary policy eases.

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  • Banerjee, Ryan & Zampolli, Fabrizio, 2019. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 420-436.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:82:y:2019:i:c:p:420-436
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.01.023
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    6. Chuluunbayar, Delgerjargal, 2019. "The US Fiscal Consolidation, its impact and policy implications," MPRA Paper 98223, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    10. de Ridder, M. & Pfajfar, D., 2017. "Policy Shocks and Wage Rigidities: Empirical Evidence from Regional Effects of National Shocks," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1717, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    11. Róbert Oravský & Peter Tóth & Anna Bánociová, 2020. "The Ability of Selected European Countries to Face the Impending Economic Crisis Caused by COVID-19 in the Context of the Global Economic Crisis of 2008," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-17, August.
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    14. Cagri Esener & Brigitte Granville & Roman Matousek, 2022. "Choosing the Optimal Tool for Fiscal Adjustment or Living under Fiscal Constraints: Panel Evidence from Selected OECD Countries," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 2-29, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal multipliers; Narrative approach; Local projections;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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