IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this article

Effectiveness of countercyclical fiscal policy: Evidence from developing Asia

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Jha, Shikha
  • Mallick, Sushanta K.
  • Park, Donghyun
  • Quising, Pilipinas F.

Abstract

Can discretionary fiscal policy effectively stimulate output? This paper examines this question in the context of developing Asia, where many countries implemented fiscal stimulus measures to support domestic demand during the global crisis. Economic conditions normalized after the crisis but growth in Asia has slowed down since. We examine historical data from 10 emerging Asian countries to assess whether countercyclical fiscal policy can support future growth in the region. Our examination is based on identifying shocks by restricting the contemporaneous relation between fiscal and non-fiscal variables. Our most significant and consistent finding is that in developing Asia, tax cuts have a greater countercyclical impact on output than government spending. This implies there is some scope for countercyclical tax adjustments so long as fiscal sustainability is not compromised.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070414000317
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 40 (2014)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 82-98

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:82-98
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.02.006
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

Keywords: Countercyclical fiscal policy; SVAR; Developing Asia; Structural shocks; Tax cuts; Government spending;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

  • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
  • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
  • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
  • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Pablo Burriel & Francisco de Castro & Daniel Garrote & Esther Gordo & Joan Paredes & Javier J. Pérez, 2010. "Fiscal Policy Shocks in the Euro Area and the US: An Empirical Assessment," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 31(2), pages 251-285, 06.
  2. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
  4. Rafiq, M.S. & Mallick, S.K., 2008. "The effect of monetary policy on output in EMU3: A sign restriction approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1756-1791, December.
  5. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
  6. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
  7. Leif Lybecker Eskesen, 2009. "The Role for Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Singapore," IMF Working Papers 09/8, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
  9. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, 03.
  10. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
  11. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
  12. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Lack of an Empirical Rationale for a Revival of Discretionary Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 550-555, May.
  13. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
  14. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
  15. Fatas, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "Government size and automatic stabilizers: international and intranational evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 3-28, October.
  16. Bernardin Akitoby & Thomas Stratmann, 2008. "Fiscal Policy and Financial Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 1971-1985, November.
  17. Evi Pappa, 2009. "The Effects Of Fiscal Shocks On Employment And The Real Wage," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(1), pages 217-244, 02.
  18. Arin, K. Peren & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2011. "Short-term growth effects of fiscal policy revisited: A Markov-switching approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 278-281, March.
  19. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Selma Mahfouz & Richard Hemming & Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity; A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 02/208, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Isabel Correia & Emmanuel Farhi & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Pedro Teles, 2013. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy at the Zero Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1172-1211, June.
  22. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  23. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2010. "Large Changes in Fiscal Policy: Taxes versus Spending," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 35-68 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Rao, M. Govinda, 1998. "Accommodating public expenditure policies: the case of fast growing Asian economies," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 673-694, April.
  25. Karel Jansen, 2004. "The Scope for Fiscal Policy: A Case Study of Thailand," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 22(2), pages 207-228, 03.
  26. J. Stephen Ferris, 2013. "Fiscal policy," Chapters,in: The Elgar Companion to Public Choice, Second Edition, chapter 16, pages 260-283 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  27. Willem H. Buiter, 2010. "The limits to fiscal stimulus," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 48-70, Spring.
  28. Sanjeev Gupta & Carlos Mulas-Granados & Emanuele Baldacci, 2009. "How Effective is Fiscal Policy Response in Systemic Banking Crises?," IMF Working Papers 09/160, International Monetary Fund.
  29. Antonio Spilimbergo & Martin Schindler & Steven A. Symansky, 2009. "Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/11, International Monetary Fund.
  30. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
  31. Ludger Linnemann & Andreas Schabert, 2006. "Productive Government Expenditure In Monetary Business Cycle Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 53(1), pages 28-46, 02.
  32. W. Max Corden, 2010. "The theory of the fiscal stimulus: how will a debt-financed stimulus affect the future?," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(1), pages 38-47, Spring.
  33. Harald Uhlig, 2010. "Some Fiscal Calculus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 30-34, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as
in new window


Cited by:

  1. Castro, Vítor, 2017. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-150.
  2. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2017. "Does the design of a fiscal rule matter for welfare?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 226-237.
  3. Cavallari, Lilia & Romano, Simone, 2017. "Fiscal policy in Europe: The importance of making it predictable," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 81-97.
  4. Choi, Yoonseok & Kim, Sunghyun, 2016. "Dynamic scoring of tax reforms in a small open economy model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 182-193.
  5. Mencinger, Jernej & Aristovnik, Aleksander & Verbič, Miroslav, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 448-461.
  6. Houndonougbo, Ahiteme N. & Mohsin, Mohammed, 2016. "Macroeconomic effects of cost equivalent business fiscal incentives," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 59-65.
  7. Bhattarai, Keshab & Trzeciakiewicz, Dawid, 2017. "Macroeconomic impacts of fiscal policy shocks in the UK: A DSGE analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 321-338.
  8. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2015. "Growth enhancing effect of discretionary fiscal policy shocks: Keynesian, Weak Keynesian or Non-Keynesian?," MPRA Paper 65976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2015.
  9. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.
  10. Murota, Ryu-ichiro & Ono, Yoshiyasu, 2015. "Fiscal policy under deflationary gap and long-run stagnation: Reinterpretation of Keynesian multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 596-603.
  11. Zhang, Lifeng & Ru, Yucong & Li, Jingkui, 2016. "Optimal tax structure and public expenditure composition in a simple model of endogenous growth," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 352-360.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Access and download statistics

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:40:y:2014:i:c:p:82-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.