IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/econom/v82y2015ip1048-1081.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Household Debt and Fiscal Multipliers

Author

Listed:
  • J. Andrés
  • J. E. Boscá
  • J. Ferri

Abstract

type="main" xml:id="ecca12161-abs-0001"> We study the size of government spending multipliers in a general equilibrium model with search and matching frictions in which we allow for different levels of household indebtedness. The main results are: (a) the presence of impatient households and private debt helps to generate government spending multipliers greater than 1; (b) as financial conditions worsen, the size of the government spending multiplier falls; (c) conversely, employment, vacancies and unemployment multipliers are larger in a credit crunch; (d) the model explains the observed pattern of responses of labour market variables, housing prices and private debt to a fiscal shock reasonably well.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Andrés & J. E. Boscá & J. Ferri, 2015. "Household Debt and Fiscal Multipliers," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 82, pages 1048-1081, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:82:y:2015:i::p:1048-1081
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecca.2015.82.issue-s1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aranzazu Crespo & Marcel Jansen, 2014. "The Role of Global Value Chains during the Crisis: Evidence from Spanish and European Firms," Working Papers 2014-09, FEDEA.
    2. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial Markets’ Behavior Around Episodes of Large Changes in the Fiscal Stance," Scholarly Articles 2579824, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Michael Woodford, 2011. "Simple Analytics of the Government Expenditure Multiplier," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(1), pages 1-35, January.
    4. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
    5. Arnaud Cheron & Francois Langot, 2004. "Labor Market Search and Real Business Cycles: Reconciling Nash Bargaining with the Real Wage Dynamics," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 476-493, April.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
    7. Barbara Rossi & Sarah Zubairy, 2011. "What Is the Importance of Monetary and Fiscal Shocks in Explaining U.S. Macroeconomic Fluctuations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(6), pages 1247-1270, September.
    8. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
    9. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 69-94, May.
    10. Javier Andrés & Oscar Arce, 2012. "Banking Competition, Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(565), pages 1346-1372, December.
    11. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    12. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 74-117, August.
    13. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "The Mathematical Appendix to Residential Investment and the Current Account," Discussion Papers 875, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
    14. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Identifying Government Spending Shocks: It's all in the Timing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 1-50.
    15. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2011. "Equilibrium in the Labor Market with Search Frictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1092-1105, June.
    16. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    17. Michael T. Kiley, 2010. "Habit Persistence, Nonseparability between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(3), pages 679-683, August.
    18. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    20. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2001. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Consumption and Employment: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2760, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    22. Cogan, John F. & Cwik, Tobias & Taylor, John B. & Wieland, Volker, 2010. "New Keynesian versus old Keynesian government spending multipliers," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 281-295, March.
    23. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    24. Campbell, John Y & Mankiw, N Gregory, 1990. "Permanent Income, Current Income, and Consumption," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(3), pages 265-279, July.
    25. Julio Carrillo & Celine Poilly, 2013. "How do financial frictions affect the spending multiplier during a liquidity trap?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(2), pages 296-311, April.
    26. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1990. "Residential investment and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 137-153, February.
    27. Annamaria Lusardi & Daniel Schneider & Peter Tufano, 2011. "Financially Fragile Households: Evidence and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 83-150.
    28. N. Gregory Mankiw, 2000. "The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 120-125, May.
    29. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    30. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    31. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 125-173.
    32. Erceg, Christopher J. & Lindé, Jesper, 2013. "Fiscal consolidation in a currency union: Spending cuts vs. tax hikes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 422-445.
    33. Andrés, Javier & Boscá, José E. & Ferri, Javier, 2013. "Household debt and labor market fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1771-1795.
    34. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    35. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment fiscal multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 531-553, July.
    36. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Lorenza Rossi & Massimiliano Tancioni, 2011. "Monetary policy, rule-of-thumb consumers and external habits: a G7 comparison," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(21), pages 2721-2738.
    37. Andolfatto, David, 1996. "Business Cycles and Labor-Market Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 112-132, March.
    38. Brückner, Markus & Pappa, Evi, 2010. "Fiscal expansions affect unemployment, but they may increase it," CEPR Discussion Papers 7766, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Misra, Kanishka & Surico, Paolo, 2011. "Heterogeneous Responses and Aggregate Impact of the 2001 Income Tax Rebates," CEPR Discussion Papers 8306, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    40. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    41. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    42. Tommaso Monacelli & Vincenzo Quadrini & Antonella Trigari, 2011. "Financial Markets and Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 17389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2009. "New Keynesian models, durable goods, and collateral constraints," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 242-254, March.
    44. Ms. Selma Mahfouz & Mr. Richard Hemming & Mr. Michael Kell, 2002. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity: A Review of the Literature," IMF Working Papers 2002/208, International Monetary Fund.
    45. Ardagna, Silvia, 2009. "Financial markets' behavior around episodes of large changes in the fiscal stance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 37-55, January.
    46. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in a Model with Financial Frictions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 35-40, May.
    47. Boscá, J.E. & Doménech, R. & Ferri, J., 2011. "Search, Nash bargaining and rule-of-thumb consumers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 927-942.
    48. Harald Uhlig, 2010. "Some Fiscal Calculus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 30-34, May.
    49. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Paul Krugman, 2012. "Debt, Deleveraging, and the Liquidity Trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1469-1513.
    50. Markus Brückner & Anita Tuladhar, 2014. "Local Government Spending Multipliers and Financial Distress: Evidence from Japanese Prefectures," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1279-1316, December.
    51. Morten O. Ravn & Saverio Simonelli, 2008. "Labor Market Dynamics and the Business Cycle: Structural Evidence for the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(4), pages 743-777, March.
    52. Reuven Glick & Kevin J. Lansing, 2010. "Global household leverage, house prices, and consumption," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jan11.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. KLEIN, Mathias & POLATTIMUR, Hamza & WINKLER, Roland, 2020. "Fiscal spending multipliers over the household leverage cycle," Working Papers 2020007, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Business and Economics.
    2. Klein, Mathias & Winkler, Roland, 2019. "Austerity, inequality, and private debt overhang," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 89-106.
    3. Yifei Lyu, 2122. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Government Spending Shocks in New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 21/02, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Sangyup Choi & Junhyeok Shin, 2020. "Household Indebtedness and the Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes," Working papers 2020rwp-178, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    5. Marco Bernardini & Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2020. "Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 304-322, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javier Andrés & José Emilio Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2011. "Household Leverage and Fiscal Multipliers," Working Papers 1103, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
    2. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2016. "Instruments, rules, and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 419-443.
    3. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Exchange Rate Regime, Fiscal Foresight and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy," ETLA Reports 20, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    4. Thomas Brand, 2017. "Vitesse et composition des ajustements budgétaires en équilibre général : une analyse appliquée à la zone euro," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 68(HS2), pages 159-182.
    5. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, September.
    6. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    7. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    8. Agata Szymańska, 2018. "Wpływ polityki fiskalnej na PKB w krajach Unii Europejskiej spoza strefy euro," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 49-74.
    9. Sebastian Gechert, 2015. "What fiscal policy is most effective? A meta-regression analysis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(3), pages 553-580.
    10. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2012. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 50-64.
    11. Ercolani, Valerio & Valle e Azevedo, João, 2014. "The effects of public spending externalities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 173-199.
    12. Monacelli, Tommaso & Perotti, Roberto & Trigari, Antonella, 2010. "Unemployment fiscal multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 531-553, July.
    13. Lemoine, Matthieu & Lindé, Jesper, 2016. "Fiscal consolidation under imperfect credibility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 108-141.
    14. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2018-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    15. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    16. Francesco Caprioli & Sandro Momigliano, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks with debt-stabilizing budgetary policies in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 839, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "On Fiscal Multipliers: Estimates From A Medium Scale Dsge Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55, pages 169-195, February.
    18. Dupaigne, Martial & Fève, Patrick, 2016. "Persistent government spending and fiscal multipliers: The investment-channel," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 425-453.
    19. Faia, Ester & Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Merkl, Christian, 2013. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market policies in Europe," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 483-499.
    20. Giambattista, Eric & Pennings, Steven, 2017. "When is the government transfer multiplier large?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 525-543.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:econom:v:82:y:2015:i::p:1048-1081. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.