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Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession

Author

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  • Marco Bernardini
  • Selien De Schryder
  • Gert Peersman

Abstract

We use a novel quarterly dataset of U.S. states to examine the dynamics and determinants of relative government spending multipliers in the decade surrounding the Great Recession. We find average multipliers that are similar to those that have been reported for the decades preceding the crisis, but this masks substantial heterogeneity. First, average cumulative multipliers were around 2 in the impact quarter, but declined to less than 1 after one year. Second, implied relative multipliers ranged between 0 and more than 4 across states at particular points in time, as well as for the same state at different moments within the sample period depending on the individual state’s stance of the business cycle, household indebtedness and the interaction of both conditions. Finally, we provide evidence that, controlling for total expenditures, a mere redistribution of government spending across states did also had a significant influence on the aggregate U.S. economy due to cross-state heterogeneity of the effects.

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  • Marco Bernardini & Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 6479, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_6479
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    9. Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2021. "When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    10. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque & Klein, Mathias & Pessoa, Sofia, 2022. "The Political Costs of Austerity," Working Paper Series 418, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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    14. Haroon Mumtaz & Laura Sunder‐Plassmann, 2021. "Nonlinear effects of government spending shocks in the USA: Evidence from state‐level data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(1), pages 86-97, January.
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    17. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri & Cristina Fuentes‐Albero, 2022. "Households' Balance Sheets and the Effect of Fiscal Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 737-778, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multiplier; household debt; Great Recession; regional redistribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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