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One Size Fits All? Monetary Policy and Asymmetric Household Debt Cycles in U.S. States

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  • BRUNO ALBUQUERQUE

Abstract

I investigate the nonlinear effects of monetary policy through differences in household debt across U.S. states. After constructing a novel indicator of inflation for the states, I compute state‐specific monetary policy stances as deviations from an aggregate Taylor rule. I find that the effectiveness of monetary policy is curtailed during periods of large household debt imbalances. Moreover, a common U.S. monetary policy does not fit all; it may have asymmetric effects on the economic performance across states, particularly at times of high dispersion in the household debt imbalances, as it may have been the case around the Great Recession.

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  • Bruno Albuquerque, 2019. "One Size Fits All? Monetary Policy and Asymmetric Household Debt Cycles in U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1309-1353, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:51:y:2019:i:5:p:1309-1353
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12547
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    2. Sangyup Choi & Kimoon Jeong & Jiseob Kim, 2023. "One Monetary Policy and Two Bank Lending Standards: A Tale of Two Europes," Working papers 2023rwp-209, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
    3. Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2017. "Is there a debt service channel of monetary transmission?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    4. Tsang, Andrew, 2021. "Uncovering Heterogeneous Regional Impacts of Chinese Monetary Policy," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 62, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    5. Marco Bernardini & Selien De Schryder & Gert Peersman, 2020. "Heterogeneous Government Spending Multipliers in the Era Surrounding the Great Recession," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(2), pages 304-322, May.
    6. Héctor Alonso Olivares-Aguayo & Maivelin Méndez-Molina & Eduardo Madrigal-Castillo, 2021. "Salud financiera en créditos hipotecarios mexicanos," Revista CEA, Instituto Tecnológico Metropolitano, vol. 7(13), pages 1-31, January.
    7. Bruno Albuquerque & Martin Iseringhausen & Frederic Opitz, 2024. "The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2024/023, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Sun, Lixin, 2019. "China’s Debt Revisited," MPRA Paper 98796, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Roben Kloosterman & Dennis Bonam & Koen van der Veer, 2022. "The effects of monetary policy across fiscal regimes," Working Papers 755, DNB.
    10. Bruno Albuquerque, 2021. "Corporate debt booms, financial constraints, and the investment nexus," CeBER Working Papers 2021-08, Centre for Business and Economics Research (CeBER), University of Coimbra.
    11. Segev, Nimrod & Schaffer, Matthew, 2020. "Monetary policy, bank competition and regional credit cycles: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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