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Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy

Author

Listed:
  • Joseph Vavra

    (University of Chicago)

  • Erik Hurst

    (University of Chicago)

  • Andreas Fuster

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

  • Martin Beraja

    (MIT and Princeton University)

Abstract

We argue that the time-varying regional distribution of housing equity shapes the aggregate consequences of monetary policy through its influence on mortgage refinancing. Using detailed loan-level data, we begin by showing that: (i) the refinancing response to interest rate cuts is strongly affected by regional differences in housing equity, and (ii) both regional differences in refinancing and overall refinancing vary over time with changes in the regional distribution of house price growth and unemployment. Then, we build a heterogeneous household model of refinancing in order to derive aggregate implications of monetary policy from our regional evidence. We find that the 2008 equity distribution made spending in depressed regions less responsive to interest rate cuts, thus dampening aggregate stimulus and increasing regional consumption inequality, whereas the opposite occurred in some earlier recessions. Taken together, our results strongly suggest that monetary policy makers should track the regional distribution of equity over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Joseph Vavra & Erik Hurst & Andreas Fuster & Martin Beraja, 2017. "Regional Heterogeneity and Monetary Policy," 2017 Meeting Papers 270, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed017:270
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Itzhak Ben-David & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2017. "Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 125(3), pages 654-712.
    2. Martin Beraja & Erik Hurst & Juan Ospina, 2019. "The Aggregate Implications of Regional Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 87(6), pages 1789-1833, November.
    3. Carlos Garriga & Finn E. Kydland & Roman Šustek, 2017. "Mortgages and Monetary Policy," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(10), pages 3337-3375.
    4. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    5. Daniel Greenwald, 2016. "The Mortgage Credit Channel of Macroeconomic Transmission," 2016 Meeting Papers 1551, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2014. "Mortgage Rates, Household Balance Sheets, and the Real Economy," NBER Working Papers 20561, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Andreas Fuster & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Andrew F. Haughwout, 2018. "Tracking and stress-testing U.S. household leverage," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue 24-1, pages 35-63.
    8. Arlene Wong, 2016. "Population aging and the transmission of monetary policy to consumption," 2016 Meeting Papers 716, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Rodney Ramcharan & Amir Kermani & Marco Di Maggio, 2015. "Monetary Policy Pass-Through: Household Consumption and Voluntary Deleveraging," 2015 Meeting Papers 256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Gertler, Mark & Karadi, Peter, 2011. "A model of unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-34, January.
    11. Sumit Agarwal & Gene Amromin & Souphala Chomsisengphet & Tim Landvoigt & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Mortgage Refinancing, Consumer Spending, and Competition: Evidence from the Home Affordable Refinancing Program," NBER Working Papers 21512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2018. "Finance and Business Cycles: The Credit-Driven Household Demand Channel," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 31-58, Summer.
    2. Hintermaier, Thomas & Koeniger, Winfried, 2018. "Differences in Euro-Area Household Finances and their Relevance for Monetary-Policy Transmission," Economics Working Paper Series 1806, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, revised Nov 2019.
    3. Koeniger, Winfried & Ramelet, Marc-Antoine, 2018. "Home Ownership and Monetary Policy Transmission," IZA Discussion Papers 11950, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Bruno Albuquerque, 2019. "One Size Fits All? Monetary Policy and Asymmetric Household Debt Cycles in U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1309-1353, August.
    5. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2018. "Home Equity Extraction and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Consumption and Residential Investment," 2018 Meeting Papers 795, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Nina Boyarchenko & Valentin Haddad & Matthew Plosser, 2016. "The Federal Reserve and market confidence," Staff Reports 773, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Cravino, Javier & Lan, Ting & Levchenko, Andrei A., 2020. "Price stickiness along the income distribution and the effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 19-32.
    8. Chi‐Young Choi & Horag Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2020. "Regional inequality in the U.S.: Evidence from city‐level purchasing power," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 738-774, September.
    9. Stephan Luck & Thomas Zimmermann, 2018. "Employment Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy : Evidence from QE," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-071, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:429-513 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Chen Lian & Yueran Ma & Carmen Wang, 2019. "Low Interest Rates and Risk-Taking: Evidence from Individual Investment Decisions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(6), pages 2107-2148.
    12. Timothy McQuade & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Adam Guren, 2016. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," 2016 Meeting Papers 371, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2018. "Mortgage Market Design: Lessons from the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 429-513.
    14. Matteo Benetton & Davide Fantino, 2018. "Competition and the pass-through of unconventional monetary policy: evidence from TLTROs," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1187, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Chi-Young Choi & Alexander Chudik, 2017. "Geographic Inequality of Economic Well-being among U.S. Cities: Evidence from Micro Panel Data," Globalization Institute Working Papers 330, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    16. Segev, Nimrod & Schaffer, Matthew, 2020. "Monetary policy, bank competition and regional credit cycles: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. François Geerolf & Thomas Grjebine, 2018. "Property Tax Shocks and Macroeconomics," Working Papers 2018-03, CEPII research center.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics
    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis

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