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How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? Evidence from HARP

Author

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  • Joshua Abel
  • Andreas Fuster

Abstract

We use quasi-random access to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) to identify the causal effect of refinancing into a lower-rate mortgage on borrower balance sheet outcomes. Refinancing substantially reduces borrower default rates on mortgages and other debt. Refinancing also causes borrowers to expand their use of debt instruments, such as auto loans, home equity lines, and other consumer debts that are proxies for spending. Borrowers that appear more constrained ex ante grow these debts more strongly after refinancing but also pay down credit card balances by more. These borrowers also have lower take-up of the refinancing opportunity.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Abel & Andreas Fuster, 2021. "How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? Evidence from HARP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 254-291, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:13:y:2021:i:2:p:254-91
    DOI: 10.1257/mac.20180116
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    Cited by:

    1. Katya Kartashova & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2025. "How Do Mortgage Rate Resets Affect Consumer Spending and Debt Repayment? Evidence from Canadian Consumers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(5), pages 1167-1210, August.
    2. Brandon Goldstein & Julapa Jagtiani & Catharine Lemieux, 2025. "Fintech Innovations in Banking: Fintech Partnership and Default Rate on Bank Loans," Working Papers 25-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Therese C. Scharlemann & Stephen H. Shore, 2022. "The effect of changing mortgage payments on default and prepayment: Evidence from HAMP resets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1231-1256, September.
    4. John Mondragon, 2022. "Credit Conditions in the Pandemic Mortgage Market," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(16), pages 1-06, June.
    5. Daniel R. Ringo, 2024. "Inframarginal Borrowers and the Mortgage Payment Channel of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. David Berger & Konstantin Milbradt & Fabrice Tourre & Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2829-2878, September.
    7. Kelly, Jane & Mazza, Elena, 2019. "Mortgage servicing burdens and LTI caps," Financial Stability Notes 13/FS/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Sumit Agarwal & Slava Mikhed & Barry Scholnick & Man Zhang, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Default in a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 21-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    9. Kim, You Suk & Lee, Donghoon & Scharlemann, Tess & Vickery, James, 2024. "Intermediation frictions in debt relief: Evidence from CARES Act forbearance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    10. Benjamin L. Collier & Daniel A. Hartley & Benjamin J. Keys & Jing Xian Ng, 2024. "Credit When You Need It," NBER Working Papers 32845, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Amina Enkhbold, 2023. "Monetary Policy Transmission, Bank Market Power, and Wholesale Funding Reliance," Staff Working Papers 23-35, Bank of Canada.
    12. Fiorin, Stefano & Hall, Joseph & Kanz, Martin, 2023. "How do Borrowers Respond to a Debt Moratorium? Experimental Evidence from Consumer Loans in India," CEPR Discussion Papers 17994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Elliot Anenberg & Tess C. Scharlemann & Eileen van Straelen, 2023. "Borrowing and Spending in the Money: Debt Substitution and the Cash-out Refinance Channel of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Adelino, Manuel & Oliveira, Miguel, 2025. "The heterogeneous effects of household debt relief," Working Paper Series 3034, European Central Bank.
    15. Tess C. Scharlemann & Eileen van Straelen, 2024. "More Tax, Less Refi? The Mortgage Interest Deduction and Monetary Policy Pass-Through," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-082, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Martin Beraja & Andreas Fuster & Erik Hurst & Joseph Vavra, 2019. "Regional Heterogeneity and the Refinancing Channel of Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(1), pages 109-183.
    17. Wayne Passmore & Shane M. Sherlund, 2021. "FHA, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and the Great Recession," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 733-777, September.
    18. Christa Gibbs & Benedict Guttman-Kenney & Donghoon Lee & Scott Nelson & Wilbert van der Klaauw & Jialan Wang, 2025. "Consumer Credit Reporting Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 63(2), pages 598-636, June.
    19. William D. Larson, 2023. "The riskiness of outstanding mortgages in the United States, 1999–2019," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 51(2), pages 279-310, March.
    20. Haoyang Liu & W. Ben McCartney & Rodney Ramcharan & Calvin Zhang & Xiaohan Zhang, 2025. "Relieving Financial Distress Increases Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Mortgage Market," Working Papers 2517, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth

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