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Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy

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  • David W. Berger
  • Konstantin Milbradt
  • Fabrice Tourre
  • Joseph Vavra

Abstract

How much ability does the Fed have to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates? We argue that the presence of substantial debt in fixed-rate, prepayable mortgages means that the ability to stimulate the economy by cutting interest rates depends not just on their current level but also on their previous path. Using a household model of mortgage prepayment matched to detailed loan-level evidence on the relationship between prepayment and rate incentives, we argue that recent interest rate paths will generate substantial headwinds for future monetary stimulus.

Suggested Citation

  • David W. Berger & Konstantin Milbradt & Fabrice Tourre & Joseph Vavra, 2018. "Mortgage Prepayment and Path-Dependent Effects of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 25157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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