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The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

Author

Listed:
  • Justiniano, Alejandro
  • Primiceri, Giorgio E
  • Tambalotti, Andrea

Abstract

We document the emergence of a disconnect between mortgage and Treasury interest rates in the summer of 2003. Following the end of the Federal Reserve expansionary cycle in June 2003, mortgage rates failed to rise according to their historical relationship with Treasury yields, leading to significantly and persistently easier mortgage credit conditions. We uncover this phenomenon by analyzing a large dataset with millions of loan-level observations, which allows us to control for the impact of varying loan, borrower and geographic characteristics. These detailed data also reveal that delinquency rates started to rise for loans originated after mid 2003, exactly when mortgage rates disconnected from Treasury yields and credit became relatively cheaper.

Suggested Citation

  • Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2017. "The Mortgage Rate Conundrum," CEPR Discussion Papers 12265, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12265
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2017. "Fraudulent Income Overstatement on Mortgage Applications During the Credit Expansion of 2002 to 2005," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1832-1864.
    2. Scanlon, Kathleen & Fernández Arrigoitia, Melissa & Whitehead, Christine M E, 2015. "Social housing in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62938, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Tim Landvoigt & Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2015. "The Housing Market(s) of San Diego," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1371-1407, April.
    4. Martin Schneider & Johannes Stroebel & Monika Piazzesi, 2012. "Segmented Housing Search," 2012 Meeting Papers 670, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    6. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    7. Un-Habitat, 2015. "Housing Finance Mechanisms in India," Working Papers id:7549, eSocialSciences.
    8. Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nelson Lind, 2017. "Credit Regimes and the Seeds of Crisis," 2017 Meeting Papers 1474, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit boom; housing boom; private label; Securitization; subprime.;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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