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The Effects of the saving and banking glut on the U.S. economy

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Abstract

We use a quantitative equilibrium model with houses, collateralized debt, and foreign borrowing to study the impact of global imbalances on the U.S. economy in the 2000s. Our results suggest that the dynamics of foreign capital flows account for between one-fourth and one-third of the increase in U.S. house prices and household debt that preceded the financial crisis. The key to these findings is that the model generates the sustained low level of interest rates observed over that period.

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  • Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the saving and banking glut on the U.S. economy," Staff Reports 648, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:648
    Note: For a published version of this report, see Alejandro Justiniano, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti, "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," Journal of International Economics 92, s1 (April 2014): s52-67.
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    Cited by:

    1. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    2. Fratianni, Michele & Giri, Federico, 2017. "The tale of two great crises," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 5-31.
    3. Elmer Sánchez León, 2016. "Mortgage Credit: Lending and Borrowing Constraints in a DSGE Framework," IHEID Working Papers 15-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Elmer Sánchez León, 2018. "Mortgage Credit: Lending and Borrowing Constraints in a DSGE Model," Working Papers 125, Peruvian Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. trade deficit; household debt;

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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