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International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • in 't Veld, Jan

    (DG-ECFIN, EU Commission)

  • Kollmann, Robert

    () (ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR)

  • Pataracchia, Beatrice

    (JRC, EU Commission)

  • Ratto, Marco

    () (JRC, EU Commission)

  • Roeger, Werner

    (DG-ECFIN, EU Commission)

Abstract

We study the joint dynamics of foreign capital flows and real activity during the recent boom- bust cycle of the Spanish economy, using a three-country New Keynesian model with credit- constrained households and firms, a construction sector and a government. We estimate the model using 1995Q1-2013Q2 data for Spain, the rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the rest of the world. We show that falling risk premia on Spanish housing and non-residential capital, a loosening of collateral constraints for Spanish households and firms, as well as a fall in the interest rate spread between Spain and the REA fuelled the Spanish output boom and the persistent rise in foreign capital flows to Spain, before the global financial crisis. During and after the global financial crisis, falling house prices, and a tightening of collateral constraints for Spanish borrowers contributed to a sharp reduction in capital inflows, and to the persistent slump in Spanish real activity. The credit crunch was especially pronounced for Spanish households; firm credit constraints tightened later and more gradually, and contributed much less to the slump.

Suggested Citation

  • in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 181, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddgw:181
    DOI: 10.24149/gwp181
    Note: Published as: In't Veld, Jan, Robert Kollmann, Beatrice Pataracchia, Marco Ratto and Werner Roeger (2014), "International Capital Flows and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance 48 (Part B): 314-335.
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    2. Dräger, Lena & Proaño, Christian R., 2015. "Cross-border banking and business cycles in asymmetric currency unions," Discussion Papers 21/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Mayer, Eric & Maas, Daniel & Rüth, Sebastian, 2016. "Current Account Dynamics and the Housing Cycle in Spain," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145824, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    4. Davis, J. Scott & Mack, Adrienne & Phoa, Wesley & Vandenabeele, Anne, 2016. "Credit booms, banking crises, and the current account," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 360-377.
    5. Cette, Gilbert & Fernald, John & Mojon, Benoît, 2016. "The pre-Great Recession slowdown in productivity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 3-20.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2014. "The great (De)leveraging in the GIIPS countries. Domestic credit and net foreign liabilities 1998–2013," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2014-4, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2014.
    7. repec:kap:jrefec:v:56:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s11146-017-9605-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2016. "The post-crisis slump in the Euro Area and the US: Evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 21-41.
    9. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 47-93.
    10. Maas, Daniel & Mayer, Eric & Rüth, Sebastian, 2015. "Current account dynamics and the housing boom and bust cycle in Spain," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 94, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
    11. Robert Kollmann, 2015. "Exchange Rates Dynamics with Long-Run Risk and Recursive Preferences," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 175-196, April.
    12. repec:wsi:serxxx:v:62:y:2017:i:01:n:s0217590817400057 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Breeden, Joseph L. & Canals-Cerda, Jose J., 2016. "Consumer risk appetite, the credit cycle, and the housing bubble," Working Papers 16-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    14. Jose Eduardo Gomez-Gonzalez & Juliana Gamboa-Arbeláez & Jorge Hirs-Garzón & Andrés Pinchao-Rosero, 2018. "When Bubble Meets Bubble: Contagion in OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 546-566, May.
    15. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Karsten Staehr, 2015. "The Great Leveraging in the GIIPS Countries: Domestic Credit and Net Foreign Liabilities," Working Papers 2015012, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    16. Robert Kollmann, 2015. "Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics: the Role of Asset Market Structure, Long-Run Risk and Risk Appetite," 2015 Meeting Papers 1397, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. repec:bla:intfin:v:19:y:2016:i:3:p:269-291 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2016. "Non-standard monetary policy, asset prices and macroprudential policy in a monetary union," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1089, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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