IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19288.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Ricardo Reis

Abstract

Between 2000 and 2012, the Portuguese economy grew less than the United States during the Great Depression and less than Japan during its lost decade. This paper asks why this happened, with a particular focus on the slump between 2000 and 2007. It describes the main facts of Portugal's recent economic history, evaluates some possible explanations for its dismal performance, and proposes a new hypothesis based on the misallocation of abundant capital flows from abroad. I put forward a model of credit frictions to show that if financial integration exceeds financial deepening, productivity will fall, generating a slump as relatively unproductive firms in the nontradables sector expand at the expense of more productive tradables firms. This explanation can also potentially account for the similarities and the differences between Portugal on the one hand, and Ireland and Spain on the other, during this period, and for some features of the crash in Portugal after 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," NBER Working Papers 19288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19288
    Note: DEV EFG IFM ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19288.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ashoka Mody & Damiano Sandri, 2012. "The eurozone crisis: how banks and sovereigns came to be joined at the hip [‘A pyrrhic victory? Bank bailouts and sovereign credit risk’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 27(70), pages 199-230.
    2. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano Santos, 2013. "Political Credit Cycles: The Case of the Eurozone," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 145-166, Summer.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Leonardo Leiderman & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 123-139, Spring.
    4. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Mystique Surrounding the Central Bank's Balance Sheet, Applied to the European Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 135-140, May.
    5. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & João Cerejeira & Miguel Portela, 2010. "Employment, exchange rates and labour market rigidity," GEMF Working Papers 2010-03, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    6. Peter Blair Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 887-935, December.
    7. Aoki, Kosuke & Benigno, Gianluca & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 2010. "Adjusting to Capital Account Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 8087, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2011. "Pegs and Pain," CEPR Discussion Papers 8275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Peter Henry, 2007. "Capital Account Liberalization: Theory, Evidence, and Speculation," Discussion Papers 07-004, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    10. Álvaro A. Novo & Mário Centeno & Carla Machado, 2007. "Job Creation and Destruction in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    11. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2013. "The Financial Resource Curse," CEP Discussion Papers dp1217, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    12. Raj Chetty, 2012. "Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 969-1018, May.
    13. Ms. Ruo Chen & Mr. Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Mr. Thierry Tressel, 2012. "External Imbalances in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2012/236, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Alexandre, Fernando & Bação, Pedro & Cerejeira, João & Portela, Miguel, 2010. "Manufacturing Employment and Exchange Rates in the Portuguese Economy: The Role of Openness, Technology and Labour Market Rigidity," IZA Discussion Papers 5251, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Serguey Braguinsky & Lee G. Branstetter & Andre Regateiro, 2011. "The Incredible Shrinking Portuguese Firm," NBER Working Papers 17265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Gabriel Fagan & Vítor Gaspar, 2007. "Adjusting to the Euro," Working Papers w200703, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    17. Caballero, Ricardo J. & Krishnamurthy, Arvind, 2001. "International and domestic collateral constraints in a model of emerging market crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 513-548, December.
    18. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2012. "The Euro's Three Crises," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 157-231.
    19. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 411-416, May.
    20. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2012. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 50-64.
    21. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    22. Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
    23. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Banerjee, Abhijit, 2004. "Financial development and the instability of open economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1077-1106, September.
    24. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "Europe and global imbalances [‘New rates for new weights’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 22(51), pages 520-573.
    25. Lane, Philip R., 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 9493, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2013. "Finance at Center Stage: Some Lessons of the Euro Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 9415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    27. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    28. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2013. "Misallocation and productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 1-10, January.
    29. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 1, pages 35-54, November.
    30. Pedro Portugal & Olivier Blanchard, 2001. "What Hides Behind an Unemployment Rate: Comparing Portuguese and U.S. Labor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 187-207, March.
    31. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    32. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
    33. Álvaro A. Novo & Mário Centeno, 2012. "Segmentation," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    34. Giavazzi, Francesco & Spaventa, Luigi, 2010. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union: Lessons from the financial crisis in the Euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8008, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    35. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
    36. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2012. "The Euro's Three Crises," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 157-231.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Growth And Adjustment Challenges For The Euro Area," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(2), pages 273-295.
    2. Filippo Balestrieri & Mr. Suman S Basu, 2018. "An Imperfect Financial Union With Heterogeneous Regions," IMF Working Papers 2018/205, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    4. Jakob de Haan & Jeroen Hessel & Niels Gilbert, 2014. "Reforming the architecture of EMU: Ensuring stability in Europe," DNB Working Papers 446, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    5. M Ayhan Kose & Eswar Prasad & Kenneth Rogoff & Shang-Jin Wei, 2009. "Financial Globalization: A Reappraisal," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(1), pages 8-62, April.
    6. Lorenzoni, Guido, 2014. "International Financial Crises," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 689-740, Elsevier.
    7. Philip R. Lane, 2019. "Macrofinancial Stability and the Euro," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 424-442, September.
    8. Fernando Alexandre & Pedro Bação & João Cerejeira & Miguel Portela, 2010. "Manufacturing employment and exchange rates in the Portuguese economy: the role of openness, technology and labour market rigidity," GEMF Working Papers 2010-23, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    9. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar & Rogoff, Kenneth & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2010. "Financial Globalization and Economic Policies," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Dani Rodrik & Mark Rosenzweig (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 4283-4359, Elsevier.
    10. Jakob Kapeller & Claudius Graebner & Philipp Heimberger, 2019. "Economic Polarisation in Europe: Causes and Policy Options," ICAE Working Papers 99, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    11. Jeroen Hessel, 2019. "Medium-term asymmetric fluctuations and EMU as an optimum currency area," DNB Working Papers 644, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    12. Benedetta Bianchi, 2016. "Sovereign Risk Premia and the International Balance Sheet: Lessons from the European Crisis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 471-493, July.
    13. Petre Caraiani, 2016. "Business Cycle Accounting for Peripheral European Economies," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(5), pages 468-496, November.
    14. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Nadir Öcal, 2022. "Analysis of distinct asymmetries in financial integration‐growth nexus for industrial, emerging and developing countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(2), pages 2326-2344, April.
    15. Brutti, Filippo, 2008. "Legal enforcement, public supply of liquidity and sovereign risk," MPRA Paper 13949, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ronny Mazzocchi & Roberto Tamborini, 2019. "Current Account Imbalances and the Euro Area: Alternative Views," EconPol Working Paper 27, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    17. Vera Eichenauer & Ronald Indergand & Isabel Z. Martínez & Christoph Sax, 2020. "Constructing Daily Economic Sentiment Indices Based on Google Trends," KOF Working papers 20-484, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    18. Philipp Heimberger & Jakob Kapeller, 2017. "The performativity of potential output: pro-cyclicality and path dependency in coordinating European fiscal policies," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 904-928, September.
    19. Campos, Nauro F & Coricelli, Fabrizio & Moretti, Luigi, 2014. "Economic Growth and Political Integration: Estimating the Benefits from Membership in the European Union Using the Synthetic Counterfactuals Method," CEPR Discussion Papers 9968, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19288. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.