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Growth and Adjustment Challenge for the Euro Area

  • Philip R. Lane

    ()

    (Institute for International Integration Studies, Trinity College Dublin)

This paper reviews the growth record of the member countries of the euro area and assesses the outlook for future economic performance. We describe how the external and fiscal adjustment challenges facing the euro periphery amplify the growth risks facing these countries. We address how growth prospects can be improved by shifts in the macroeconomic policy mix, carefully-timed structural reforms, debt restructuring and the resolution of the existential crisis facing the euro area.

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Paper provided by IIIS in its series The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series with number iiisdp426.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iis:dispap:iiisdp426
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  1. Vahagn Galstyan & Philip R. Lane, 2009. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1233-1249, 09.
  2. Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Sudden stops in the euro area," Policy Contributions 718, Bruegel.
  3. Kenneth Rogoff & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2002. "Bankruptcy Procedures for Sovereigns: A History of Ideas, 1976-2001," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(3), pages 8.
  4. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007. "The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
  5. Ricardo Reis, 2013. "The Portuguese Slump and Crash and the Euro Crisis," NBER Working Papers 19288, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," CEPR Discussion Papers 7209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Raphael A. Auer, 2014. "What drives TARGET2 balances? Evidence from a panel analysis," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 139-197, 01.
  8. Gauti Eggertsson & Andrea Ferrero & Andrea Raffo, 2013. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," International Finance Discussion Papers 1092, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Gianluca Benigno & Luca Fornaro, 2013. "The financial resource curse," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51557, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 69-86, Summer.
  11. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects Of Regulation And Deregulation In Goods And Labor Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(3), pages 879-907, August.
  12. Keynote Speech by Maurice Obstfeld, 2011. "International Liquidity: The Fiscal Dimension," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 33-48, November.
  13. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Luis Garicano & Tano J. Santos, 2013. "Political credit cycles: the case of the Euro zone," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 51255, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Philip R. Lane, 2013. "Capital Flows in the Euro Area," European Economy - Economic Papers 497, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  15. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
  16. André Faria & Philip R. Lane & Paolo Mauro & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2007. "The Shifting Composition of External Liabilities," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 480-490, 04-05.
  17. Lane, Philip R. & Pels, Barbara, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 8958, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Alberto Alesina & Silvia Ardagna, 2013. "The Design of Fiscal Adjustments," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 27, pages 19-67 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Thomas Laryea, 2010. "Approaches to Corporate Debt Restructuring in the Wake of Financial Crises," IMF Staff Position Notes 2010/02, International Monetary Fund.
  20. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Banking Globalization and Monetary Transmission," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(5), pages 1811-1843, October.
  21. Martin Raiser & Indermit S. Gill, 2012. "Golden Growth : Restoring the Lustre of the European Economic Model," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6016.
  22. Susanto Basu & John Fernald & Miles Kimball, 2002. "Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1986, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  23. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2013. "The output effect of fiscal consolidations," Working Papers 478, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  24. Farhi, Emmanuel & Gopinath, Gita & Itskhoki, Oleg, 2011. "Fiscal Devaluations," CEPR Discussion Papers 8721, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
  26. Lone Engbo Christiansen & Thierry Tressel & Martin Schindler, 2009. "Growth and Structural Reforms; A New Assessment," IMF Working Papers 09/284, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Lorenzo Forni & Andrea Gerali & Massimiliano Pisani, 2009. "Macroeconomic effects of greater competition in the service sector: the case of Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 706, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  28. Robert Gillanders & Karl Whelan, 2010. "Open For Business? Institutions, Business Environment and Economic Development," Working Papers 201040, School Of Economics, University College Dublin.
  29. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 54(2), pages 127-158, June.
  30. Thomas Laryea & Luc Laeven, 2009. "Principles of Household Debt Restructuring," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/15, International Monetary Fund.
  31. Shiller, Robert J., 1998. "Macro Markets: Creating Institutions for Managing Society's Largest Economic Risks," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198294184, March.
  32. Maurice Obstfeld, 2013. "The International Monetary System: Living with Asymmetry," NBER Chapters, in: Globalization in an Age of Crisis: Multilateral Economic Cooperation in the Twenty-First Century, pages 301-336 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  33. Francesco Giavazzi & Luigi Spaventa, 2011. "Why the current account may matter in a monetary union. Lesson from the financial crisis in the Euro area," Working Papers 426, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  34. Ruo Chen & Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Thierry Tressel, 2012. "External Imbalances in the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 12/236, International Monetary Fund.
  35. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2008. "Where Did All The Borrowing Go? A Forensic Analysis of the U.S. External Position," CEPR Discussion Papers 6655, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Romain Bouis & Orsetta Causa & Lilas Demmou & Romain Duval & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2012. "The Short-Term Effects of Structural Reforms: An Empirical Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 949, OECD Publishing.
  37. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
  38. Philip R. Lane, 2006. "The Real Effects of European Monetary Union," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 47-66, Fall.
  39. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2002. "Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area: The End of the Feldstein Horioka Puzzle?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 147-210.
  40. Kristin J. Forbes, 2012. "The “Big C”: identifying and mitigating contagion," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 23-87.
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