Sudden stops in the euro area
The single currency was expected to make balance of payments irrelevant between the euro-area member states. This benign view has been challenged by recent developments, especially as imbalances between euro-area central banks have widened within the TARGET2 settlement system.Current-account developments can be misleading as indicators of financial account developments in countries that receive significant official support. Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain experienced significant private-capital inflows from 2002 to 2007-09, followed by unambiguously massive outflows.We show that such reversals qualify as ‘sudden stops’. Euro-area sudden-stop episodes were clustered in three periods - the global financial crisis, a period following the agreement of the Greek programme and summer 2011. The timeline suggests contagion effects were present.We find evidence of substitution of the private capital flows with public components. In particular, weak banks in distressed countries took up a major share of the central bank refinancing. The steady divergence of intra Eurosystem net balances mirrors this.In the short term, TARGET2 imbalances could be addressed by tightening collateral requirements for central bank liquidity. For the longer term, the evidence that the euro area has been subject to internal balance-of-payment crises should be taken as a strong signal of weakness and as an invitation to reform its structures.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Rue de la Charité, B-1210 Brussels|
Phone: +32 2 227 4210
Web page: http://www.bruegel.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hans-Werner Sinn, 2012. "The European Balance of Payments Crisis: An Introduction," CESifo Forum, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 13(SPECIALIS), pages 03-10, 02.
- Jean Pisani-Ferry & André Sapir & Benedicta Marzinotto, 2010. "Two crises, two responses," Policy Briefs 392, Bruegel.
- Silvia Merler & Jean Pisani-Ferry, 2012. "Who's afraid of sovereign bonds?," Policy Contributions 695, Bruegel.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004.
"On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects,"
NBER Working Papers
10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the empirics of Sudden Stops: the relevance of balance-sheet effects," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," Research Department Publications 4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6516, Inter-American Development Bank.
- Ulrich Bindseil & Philipp Johann König, 2012. "TARGET2 and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 45(2), pages 135–174.
- Bindseil, Ulrich & Winkler, Adalbert, 2012. "Dual liquidity crises under alternative monetary frameworks: a financial accounts perspective," Working Paper Series 1478, European Central Bank.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2012.
"Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: the ECB’s rescue facility,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 468-508, August.
- Sinn, Hans-Werner & Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2012. "Target loans, current account balances and capital flows: The ECB’s rescue facility," Munich Reprints in Economics 19556, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2011. "Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility," CESifo Working Paper Series 3500, CESifo Group Munich.
- Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershaeuser, 2011. "Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB's Rescue Facility," NBER Working Papers 17626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Whittaker, John, 2011. "Intra-eurosystem debts," MPRA Paper 38368, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bre:polcon:718. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bruegel)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.