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Sudden stops in the Euro Area: Does monetary union matter?

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  • Fagan, Gabriel
  • McNelis, Paul D.

Abstract

This paper examines how membership of a monetary union affects macroeconomic adjustment of Euro Area countries to sudden stops. We focus on a key feature of the monetary union: the availability of external financing from the common central bank reflected in TARGET balances. For this purpose, we use a modified version of the Mendoza (2010) model which incorporates central bank financing, based on an empirical analysis of TARGET flows. Our results show that the availability of such financing greatly mitigates the collapse in GDP, consumption and investment during sudden stops (relative to a regime in which such financing is not available). However, a welfare analysis shows that common central bank financing only results in modest welfare gains in the affected country, since it exacerbates the tendency towards over-borrowing, leading to an increased incidence of sudden stop episodes.

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  • Fagan, Gabriel & McNelis, Paul D., 2020. "Sudden stops in the Euro Area: Does monetary union matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:108:y:2020:i:c:s0261560620300772
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2020.102163
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    2. Fabiani, Josefina & Fidora, Michael & Setzer, Ralph & Westphal, Andreas & Zorell, Nico, 2021. "Sudden stops and asset purchase programmes in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2597, European Central Bank.
    3. Giovannini, Alessandro & Ioannou, Demosthenes & Stracca, Livio, 2022. "Public and private risk sharing: friends or foes? The interplay between different forms of risk sharing," Occasional Paper Series 295, European Central Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E52; E62; F41;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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