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Financial Crises and Exchange Rate Policy

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  • Luca Fornaro

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic small open economy model featuring an occasionally binding collateral constraint and nominal wage rigidities. The goal is to study the performance of alternative exchange rate policies in economies that endogenously alternate between tranquil times and crises. Financial frictions introduce a trade-off between price and financial stability. For low levels of foreign debt the probability of a future crisis is small and the best policy consists in targeting wage inflation. For high levels of foreign debt the probability of a future crisis is high and wage inflation targeting is dominated by a flexible exchange rate targeting rule, because the latter policy does a better job in mitigating the fall in output, consumption and capital inflows during crisis events. In contrast, pegging the exchange rate is always welfare dominated by targeting wage inflation. I also find that the exchange rate regime affects both the behavior of the economy during crisis events and the crisis probability, through its impact on debt accumulation during tranquil times.

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  • Luca Fornaro, 2012. "Financial Crises and Exchange Rate Policy," 2012 Meeting Papers 726, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:726
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    Cited by:

    1. Dilger, Alexander, 2015. "Welche Unternehmen profitieren vom Euro?," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 8/2015, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.
    2. Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2017. "Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 114-130.
    3. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-7, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Alessandro Rebucci & Chang Ma, 2019. "Capital Controls: A Survey of the New Literature," NBER Working Papers 26558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. de Ferra, Sergio & Mitman, Kurt & Romei, Federica, 2020. "Household heterogeneity and the transmission of foreign shocks," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Asymmetric Business Cycles In Emerging Market Economies," Working Papers 1909, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    7. Hassan, Tarek A. & Mertens, Thomas M. & Zhang, Tony, 2016. "Not so disconnected: Exchange rates and the capital stock," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(S1), pages 43-57.
    8. Korinek, Anton, 2018. "Regulating capital flows to emerging markets: An externality view," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 61-80.
    9. Devereux, Michael B. & Young, Eric R. & Yu, Changhua, 2019. "Capital controls and monetary policy in sudden-stop economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 52-74.
    10. Akıncı, Özge & Chahrour, Ryan, 2018. "Good news is bad news: Leverage cycles and sudden stops," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 362-375.
    11. Ben Zeev, Nadav, 2019. "Global credit supply shocks and exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 1-32.
    12. Weithing Zhang & Thomas Mertens & Tarek Hassan, 2014. "Currency Manipulation," 2014 Meeting Papers 401, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Konstantin Makrelov & Channing Arndt & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2018. "Stock-and-flow-consistent macroeconomic model for South Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series 007, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    14. Siming Liu, 2018. "Spending Multiplier during Sudden Stop Crises," 2018 Meeting Papers 226, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Benigno , Gianluca & Chen , Huigang & Otrock , Christopher & Rebucci , Alessandro & Young , Eric R., 2012. "Monetary and Macro-prudential Policies: An Integrated Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 1-40, October.
    16. Siming Liu, 2018. "Government Spending during Sudden Stop Crises," CAEPR Working Papers 2018-002, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Department of Economics, Indiana University Bloomington.
    17. Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2016. "Optimal Macroprudential and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," 2016 Meeting Papers 463, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regimes And Sudden Stops," Working Papers 1712, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    19. Konstantin Makrelov & Rob Davies & Laurence Harris, 2019. "The impact of capital flow reversal shocks in South Africa- a stock- and flow-consistent analysis," Working Papers 9392, South African Reserve Bank.
    20. Michael B. Devereux & Changhua Yu, 2017. "Exchange Rate Adjustment in Financial Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(3), pages 528-562, August.
    21. Dilger, Alexander, 2015. "Which currency is best for business in a small country?," Discussion Papers of the Institute for Organisational Economics 5/2015, University of Münster, Institute for Organisational Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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