Pegs and Pain
This paper quantifies the costs of adhering to a fixed exchange rate arrangement, such as a currency union, for emerging economies. To this end it develops a dynamic stochastic disequilibrium model of a small open economy with downward nominal wage rigidity. In the model, a negative external shock causes persistent unemployment because the fixed exchange rate and downward wage rigidity stand in the way of real depreciation. In these circumstances, optimal exchange rate policy calls for large devaluations. In a calibrated version of the model, a large contraction, defined as a two-standard-deviation decline in tradable output, causes the unemployment rate to rise by more than 20 percentage points under a peg. The required devaluation under the optimal exchange rate policy is more than 50 percent. The median welfare cost of a currency peg is shown to be large, between 4 and 10 percent of lifetime consumption. Fixed exchange rate arrangements are found to be more costly when initial fundamentals are characterized by high past wages, large external debt, high country premia, or unfavorable terms of trade.
|Date of creation:||2012|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Society for Economic Dynamics Marina Azzimonti Department of Economics Stonybrook University 10 Nicolls Road Stonybrook NY 11790 USA|
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
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- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2007.
"The external wealth of nations mark II: Revised and extended estimates of foreign assets and liabilities, 1970-2004,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 223-250, November.
- Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970-2004," CEPR Discussion Papers 5644, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II: Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities,1970–2004," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp126, IIIS.
- Philip R. Lane & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti, 2006. "The External Wealth of Nations Mark II; Revised and Extended Estimates of Foreign Assets and Liabilities, 1970–2004," IMF Working Papers 06/69, International Monetary Fund.