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A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories

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  • Enrique G. Mendoza
  • Vivian Z. Yue

Abstract

We propose a model that solves the crucial disconnect between business cycle models that treat default risk as an exogenous interest rate on working capital, and sovereign default models that treat output fluctuations as an exogenous process with ad-hoc default costs. The model explains observed output dynamics around defaults, countercyclical spreads, high debt ratios, and key business cycle moments. Three features of the model are central for these results: working capital loans pay for imported inputs; default triggers an efficiency loss as imported inputs are replaced by imperfect domestic substitutes; and default on public and private foreign obligations occurs simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2008. "A Solution to the Disconnect between Country Risk and Business Cycle Theories," NBER Working Papers 13861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13861
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Arellano, Cristina & Kocherlakota, Narayana, 2014. "Internal debt crises and sovereign defaults," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 68-80.
    2. Das, Udaibir S. & Papaioannou, Michael G. & Trebesch, Christoph, . "Sovereign Default Risk and Private Sector Access to Capital in Emerging Markets," Chapters in Economics, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    3. Dailami, Mansoor, 2010. "Sovereign debt distress and corporate spillover impacts," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5380, The World Bank.
    4. Boz, Emine, 2011. "Sovereign default, private sector creditors, and the IFIs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 70-82, January.
    5. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B., 2010. ""Unfunded liabilities" and uncertain fiscal financing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 600-619, July.
    6. Peter Sinclair, 2011. "Deficits, Debts and Defaults - Past, Present and Future," Discussion Papers 11-20, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    7. Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2011. "Pegs and Pain," CEPR Discussion Papers 8275, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    9. S. Meral Cakici, 2011. "Default Risk Premium and Aggregate Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1131, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    10. Demian Pouzo & Ignacio Presno, 2012. "Sovereign default risk and uncertainty premia," Working Papers 12-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Daude, Christian, 2012. "Sovereign default risk and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 47-50.
    12. Juan M. Sanchez, 2009. "The role of information in the rise in consumer bankruptcies," Working Paper 09-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    13. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "Sudden stops, financial crises and leverage: a Fisherian deflation of Tobin's Q," International Finance Discussion Papers 960, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Christoph Trebesch, 2009. "The Cost of Aggressive Sovereign Debt Policies; How Much is theprivate Sector Affected?," IMF Working Papers 09/29, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Gao, Xiang, 2009. "Macroeconomic Analysis on the Basis of Trade Theory: A Review Essay," MPRA Paper 18380, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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