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The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default

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  • Trebesch, Christoph
  • Zabel, Michael

Abstract

How costly are sovereign debt crises? In this paper we study output losses during sovereign default and debt renegotiation episodes since 1980. In contrast to previous work, we account for the severity of default and not only for its occurrence. Specifically, we distinguish between "hard" and "soft" defaults, using new data on debtor payment and negotiation behavior and on the size of haircuts towards private external creditors. We show that hard defaults are associated with a much steeper drop in GDP, of up to ten percent, compared to soft defaults. The results are consistent with theoretical models assuming proportional output costs of default.

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  • Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," Munich Reprints in Economics 55046, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:lmu:muenar:55046
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    1. A ciascun debito la sua ristrutturazione
      by Silvia Marchesi e Tania Masi in La Voce on 2018-08-16 08:20:06

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    2. Lorenzo Esposito & Giuseppe Mastromatteo, 2019. "Defaultnomics: Making Sense of the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence in a Financialized World," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_933, Levy Economics Institute.
    3. Corsetti, G. & Erce, A. & Uy, T., 2017. "Official Sector Lending Strategies During the Euro Area Crisis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1730, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Xuan Wang, 2019. "When Do Currency Unions Benefit From Default ?," 2019 Papers pwa938, Job Market Papers.
    5. Christophe Destais & Frederik Eidam & Friedrich Heinemann, 2019. "The design of a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism for the euro area: Choices and trade-offs," CEPII Policy Brief 2019-25, CEPII research center.
    6. Silvia Marchesi, 2016. "Life after default? Private vs. official sovereign debt restructurings," Development Working Papers 398, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 26 Aug 2016.
    7. Frederik Eidam & Friedrich Heinemann, 2019. "Towards more feasible sovereign debt restructurings in the euro area," EconPol Policy Reports 12, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
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    10. Medas, Paulo & Poghosyan, Tigran & Xu, Yizhi & Farah-Yacoub, Juan & Gerling, Kerstin, 2018. "Fiscal crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 191-207.
      • Kerstin Gerling & Paulo A Medas & Tigran Poghosyan & Juan Farah-Yacoub & Yizhi Xu, 2017. "Fiscal Crises," IMF Working Papers 17/86, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Ayumu Ken Kikkawa & Akira Sasahara, 2018. "Gains from Trade and the Sovereign Bond Market," EconStor Preprints 190820, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    12. Kikkawa, Ayumu Ken & Sasahara, Akira, 2020. "Gains from trade and the sovereign bond market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    13. Kuvshinov, Dmitry & Zimmermann, Kaspar, 2019. "Sovereigns going bust: Estimating the cost of default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 1-21.
    14. Christian Grisse & Gisle J. Natvik, 2018. "Sovereign debt crises and cross-country assistance," Working Papers 2018-15, Swiss National Bank.
    15. Cui, Wei, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of delayed capital liquidation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86156, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    16. Grey Gordon & Pablo Guerron-Quintana, 2019. "A Quantitative Theory of Hard and Soft Sovereign Defaults," 2019 Meeting Papers 412, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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