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The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity, and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis

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  • Guido Sandleris
  • Mark L. J. Wright

Abstract

Financial crises in emerging market countries appear to be very costly: both output and a host of partial welfare indicators decline dramatically. The magnitude of these costs is puzzling both from an accounting perspective - factor usage does not decline as much as output, resulting in large falls in measured productivity - and from a theoretical perspective. Towards a resolution of this puzzle, we present a framework that allows us to (i) account for changes in a country's measured productivity during a financial crises as the result of changes in the underlying technology of the economy, the efficiency with which resources are allocated across sectors, and the efficiency of the resource allocation within sectors driven both by reallocation amongst existing plants and by entry and exit; and (ii) measure the change in the country's welfare resulting from changes in productivity, government spending, the terms of trade, and a country's international investment position. We apply this framework to the Argentine crisis of 2001 using a unique establishment level dataset and find that more than half of the roughly 10% decline in measured total factor productivity can be accounted for by deteriorations in the allocation of resources both across and within sectors. We measure the decline in welfare to be on the order of one-quarter of one years GDP.
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  • Guido Sandleris & Mark L. J. Wright, 2014. "The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity, and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 87-127, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:116:y:2014:i:1:p:87-127
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    Cited by:

    1. Susanto Basu & Luigi Pascali & Fabio Schiantarelli & Luis Serven, 2012. "Productivity and the Welfare of Nations," Working Papers 621, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Vivian Yue & Sangeeta Pratap & George Alessandria, 2010. "Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations," 2010 Meeting Papers 1067, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. repec:aea:jecper:v:31:y:2017:i:3:p:151-74 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    5. Kyoji Fukao & Tsutomu Miyagawa & Hak Kil Pyo & Keun Hee Rhee, 2012. "Estimates of Total Factor Productivity, the Contribution of ICT, and Resource Reallocation Effects in Japan and Korea," Chapters,in: Industrial Productivity in Europe, chapter 9 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    6. Rahul Mukherjee & Christian Proebsting, 2017. "Acquirers and Financial Constraints: Theory and Evidence from Emerging Markets," IHEID Working Papers 21-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    7. Shenoy, Ajay, 2017. "Market failures and misallocation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 65-80.
    8. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2017. "The Causes and Costs of Misallocation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 151-174, Summer.
    9. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    10. Ryzhenkov, Mykola, 2016. "Resource misallocation and manufacturing productivity: The case of Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 41-55.
    11. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2011. "Sectoral Bubbles and Endogenous Growth," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    12. Ezra Oberfield, 2013. "Productivity and Misallocation During a Crisis: Evidence from the Chilean Crisis of 1982," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 100-119, January.
    13. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    14. Dias, Daniel A. & Robalo Marques, Carlos & Richmond, Christine, 2016. "Misallocation and productivity in the lead up to the Eurozone crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 46-70.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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