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The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis

Author

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  • Mark Wright

    (UCLA)

  • Guido Sandleris

    (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella)

Abstract

Financial crises in emerging market countries appear to be very costly: output falls are often dramatic, while a host of partial welfare indicators deteriorate as well. The magnitude of the decline in output is puzzling from an accounting perspective, as factor usage does not decline as much as output, resulting in large falls in measured productivity. Furthermore, if productivity is associated with technology, we have no theory to explain why technology should deteriorate during a crisis. In this paper, we present a framework that allows us to account for observed changes in a country's productivity during a financial crises, and to measure the resulting change in the country's welfare. Specifically, we show how to decompose the change in an economy's measured productivity into changes in the efficiency with which resources are allocated across and within sectors and other factors. This framework allows us to measure the welfare costs of a financial crisis, and to decompose these welfare costs into the contributions from changes in technology, in the efficiency of the resource allocation mechanism, in the efficiency of government spending, and in the terms of trade. We apply this framework to the Argentine crisis of 2001 using a combination of national accounts and establishment level data. We find that more than half of the roughly 11% decline in measured total factor productivity can be accounted for by deteriorations in the allocation of resources both across and within sectors. We measure the decline in welfare to be on the order of 15% of one year GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Wright & Guido Sandleris, 2011. "The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis," 2011 Meeting Papers 900, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:900
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2017. "The Causes and Costs of Misallocation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 151-174, Summer.
    2. Susanto Basu & Luigi Pascali & Fabio Schiantarelli & Luis Serven, 2012. "Productivity and the Welfare of Nations," Working Papers 621, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    3. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2011. "Sectoral Bubbles and Endogenous Growth," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    5. David Rezza Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2020. "Productivity and Misallocation in General Equilibrium," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 105-163.
    6. Alam, M. Jahangir, 2020. "Capital misallocation: Cyclicality and sources," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Shenoy, Ajay, 2017. "Market failures and misallocation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 65-80.
    8. Trebesch, Christoph & Zabel, Michael, 2017. "The output costs of hard and soft sovereign default," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 416-432.
    9. Ryzhenkov, Mykola, 2016. "Resource misallocation and manufacturing productivity: The case of Ukraine," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 41-55.
    10. Kyoji Fukao & Tsutomu Miyagawa & Hak Kil Pyo & Keun Hee Rhee, 2012. "Estimates of Total Factor Productivity, the Contribution of ICT, and Resource Reallocation Effects in Japan and Korea," Chapters, in: Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.),Industrial Productivity in Europe, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Sophie Osotimehin, 2019. "Aggregate productivity and the allocation of resources over the business cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 180-205, April.
    12. Felipe Meza & Carlos Urrutia & Sangeeta Pratap, 2018. "Credit Conditions, Dynamic Distortions, and Capital Accumulation in Mexican Manufacturing," 2018 Meeting Papers 875, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Vivian Yue & Sangeeta Pratap & George Alessandria, 2010. "Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations," 2010 Meeting Papers 1067, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Simone Lenzu & Francesco Manaresi, 2019. "Sources and implications of resource misallocation: new evidence from firm-level marginal products and user costs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 485, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Ezra Oberfield, 2013. "Productivity and Misallocation During a Crisis: Evidence from the Chilean Crisis of 1982," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 100-119, January.
    16. Dias, Daniel A. & Robalo Marques, Carlos & Richmond, Christine, 2016. "Misallocation and productivity in the lead up to the Eurozone crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 46-70.
    17. Felipe Meza & Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2019. "Credit, Misallocation and Productivity: A Disaggregated Analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 61-86, October.
    18. Sophie Osotimehin, 2019. "Aggregate productivity and the allocation of resources over the business cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 180-205, April.
    19. Emmanuel Dhyne & Glenn Magerman & Ayumu Ken kikkawa, 2019. "Imperfect Competition in Firm-to-Firm Trade," Working Papers ECARES 2019-05, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    20. Mengus, Eric, 2018. "Honoring sovereign debt or bailing out domestic residents? The limits to bailouts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 14-24.
    21. Tamon Asonuma & Marcos d Chamon & Aitor Erce & Akira Sasahara, 2019. "Costs of Sovereign Defaults: Restructuring Strategies, Bank Distress and the Capital Inflow-Credit Channel," IMF Working Papers 19/69, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Rahul Mukherjee & Christian Proebsting, 2017. "Acquirers and Financial Constraints: Theory and Evidence from Emerging Markets," IHEID Working Papers 21-2017, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    23. Susanto Basu & Luigi Pascali & Fabio Schiantarelli & Luis Serven, 2012. "Productivity and the Welfare of Nations," Working Papers 621, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    24. Eisenbach, Thomas M., 2017. "Rollover risk as market discipline: A two-sided inefficiency," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(2), pages 252-269.
    25. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.),Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.

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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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