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The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis

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  • Guido Sandleris
  • Mark L.J. Wright

Abstract

Financial crises in emerging market countries appear to be very costly: both output and a host of partial welfare indicators decline dramatically. The magnitude of these costs is puzzling both from an accounting perspective -- factor usage does not decline as much as output, resulting in large falls in measured productivity -- and from a theoretical perspective. Towards a resolution of this puzzle, we present a framework that allows us to (i) account for changes in a country's measured productivity during a financial crises as the result of changes in the underlying technology of the economy, the efficiency with which resources are allocated across sectors, and the efficiency of the resource allocation within sectors driven both by reallocation amongst existing plants and by entry and exit; and (ii) measure the change in the country's welfare resulting from changes in productivity, government spending, the terms of trade, and a country's international investment position. We apply this framework to the Argentine crisis of 2001 using a unique establishment level data-set and find that more than half of the roughly 10% decline in measured total factor productivity can be accounted for by deterioration in the allocation of resources both across and within sectors. We measure the decline in welfare to be on the order of one-quarter of one years GDP.

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  • Guido Sandleris & Mark L.J. Wright, 2011. "The Costs of Financial Crises: Resource Misallocation, Productivity and Welfare in the 2001 Argentine Crisis," NBER Working Papers 17552, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17552
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    Cited by:

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    3. Kyoji Fukao & Tsutomu Miyagawa & Hak Kil Pyo & Keun Hee Rhee, 2012. "Estimates of Total Factor Productivity, the Contribution of ICT, and Resource Reallocation Effects in Japan and Korea," Chapters, in: Matilde Mas & Robert Stehrer (ed.), Industrial Productivity in Europe, chapter 9, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Tuochen Li & Dongri Han & Shaosong Feng & Lei Liang, 2019. "Can Industrial Co-Agglomeration between Producer Services and Manufacturing Reduce Carbon Intensity in China?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-15, July.
    5. Vivian Yue & Sangeeta Pratap & George Alessandria, 2010. "Export Dynamics in Large Devaluations," 2010 Meeting Papers 1067, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    6. Dias, Daniel A. & Robalo Marques, Carlos & Richmond, Christine, 2016. "Misallocation and productivity in the lead up to the Eurozone crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 46-70.
    7. Sophie Osotimehin, 2019. "Aggregate productivity and the allocation of resources over the business cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 180-205, April.
    8. Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Economic Growth with Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 3033-3058, October.
    9. Beatriz Cuadrado-Ballesteros & Noemí Mordán & Isabel-María García-Sánchez, 2014. "Is Local Financial Health Associated with Citizens’ Quality of Life?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 119(2), pages 559-580, November.
    10. Filippo Brutti & Philip Sauré, 2016. "Repatriation of Debt in the Euro Crisis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 145-174.
    11. Susanto Basu & Luigi Pascali & Fabio Schiantarelli & Luis Serven, 2012. "Productivity and the Welfare of Nations," Working Papers 621, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    12. Jianjun Miao & PENGFEI WANG, 2011. "Sectoral Bubbles and Endogenous Growth," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2011-032, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    13. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia & Felipe Meza, 2017. "Credit, Misallocation and Productivity Growth: A Disaggregated Analysis," 2017 Meeting Papers 538, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    14. Ezra Oberfield, 2013. "Productivity and Misallocation During a Crisis: Evidence from the Chilean Crisis of 1982," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 100-119, January.
    15. Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia & Felipe Meza, 2014. "Credit, Misallocation and TFP: The case of Mexico (2003-2010)," 2014 Meeting Papers 701, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    16. Felipe Meza & Sangeeta Pratap & Carlos Urrutia, 2014. "Credit, Sectoral Misallocation and TFP: The Case of Mexico 2003-2010," Working Papers 1402, Centro de Investigacion Economica, ITAM.
    17. Kyoji Fukao, 2013. "Productivity and capital accumulation," Chapters, in: Hal Hill & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista (ed.), Asia Rising, chapter 4, pages 104-136, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Francisco J. Buera & Benjamin Moll, 2012. "Aggregate Implications of a Credit Crunch," NBER Working Papers 17775, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Hansen, G.D. & Ohanian, L.E., 2016. "Neoclassical Models in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2043-2130, Elsevier.

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    JEL classification:

    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems

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