IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed006/785.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring the Miracle: Market Imperfections and Asia's Growth Experience

Author

Listed:
  • John Fernald

    (Research Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)

  • Brent Neiman

Abstract

A clear understanding of the rapid development of the newly industrialized economies (NIEs) of Asia remains elusive, with disputes over the roles of technology growth, capital accumulation, and international trade and investment. Most notably, alternative approaches to growth accounting yield contradictory results: Estimates using quantities of inputs and output (the primal approach) find slow TFP growth, whereas estimates using real factor prices (the dual approach) find relatively rapid TFP growth. Further, the growth accounting studies report constant or increasing labor shares in most of the NIEs, inconsistent with theories emphasizing the importance of international trade in Asia’s development. We reconcile these apparent contradictions by taking account of economically interesting imperfections in output and capital markets, such as sizeable economic profits and government-directed credit. In Singapore, where the growth accounting disparity is largest, these market imperfections essentially fostered a two-sector economy in which some firms, part of a “favored†sector, received preferential treatment and reaped economic profits. We describe the dynamics of this two-sector framework and derive measures of technology growth, corrected for the imperfections that we quantify. We then discuss implications for broader disputes about Asian development

Suggested Citation

  • John Fernald & Brent Neiman, 2006. "Measuring the Miracle: Market Imperfections and Asia's Growth Experience," 2006 Meeting Papers 785, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed006:785
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A. & Hubbard, R. Glenn, 2002. "Tax policy and business investment," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 20, pages 1293-1343, Elsevier.
    2. Auerbach, Alan J, 1983. "Taxation, Corporate Financial Policy and the Cost of Capital," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 905-940, September.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1993. "Making a Miracle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(2), pages 251-272, March.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Francesco Giavazzi, 2003. "Macroeconomic Effects of Regulation and Deregulation in Goods and Labor Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(3), pages 879-907.
    5. Mr. Michael Sarel, 1997. "Growth and Productivity in Asean Countries," IMF Working Papers 1997/097, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Young, Alwyn, 1994. "Lessons from the East Asian NICS: A contrarian view," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(3-4), pages 964-973, April.
    7. Alwyn Young, 2000. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," NBER Working Papers 7856, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. John Romalis, 2004. "Factor Proportions and the Structure of Commodity Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 67-97, March.
    9. Douglas Gollin, 2002. "Getting Income Shares Right," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(2), pages 458-474, April.
    10. Leipziger, Danny M., 1988. "Industrial restructuring in Korea," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-135, January.
    11. Jaume Ventura, 1997. "Growth and Interdependence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 112(1), pages 57-84.
    12. Mary O'Mahony & Marcel P. Timmer, 2009. "Output, Input and Productivity Measures at the Industry Level: The EU KLEMS Database," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(538), pages 374-403, June.
    13. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    14. Robert C. Feenstra & Marshall B. Reinsdorf, 2007. "Should Exact Index Numbers Have Standard Errors? Theory and Application to Asian Growth," NBER Chapters, in: Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Honor of Zvi Griliches, pages 483-513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Diego Restuccia & Richard Rogerson, 2008. "Policy Distortions and Aggregate Productivity with Heterogeneous Plants," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(4), pages 707-720, October.
    16. Basu, Susanto & Fernald, John G., 2002. "Aggregate productivity and aggregate technology," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 963-991, June.
    17. Robert Inklaar, 2007. "Cyclical Productivity in Europe and the United States: Evaluating the Evidence on Returns to Scale and Input Utilization," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 74(296), pages 822-841, November.
    18. Susanto Basu & John Fernald, 2001. "Why Is Productivity Procyclical? Why Do We Care?," NBER Chapters, in: New Developments in Productivity Analysis, pages 225-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. repec:rus:hseeco:70719 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models with Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets," NBER Working Papers 4502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Ermisch, J. F. & Huff, W. G., 1999. "Hypergrowth in an East Asian NIC: Public policy and capital accumulation in Singapore," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 21-38, January.
    22. Alwyn Young, 2003. "Gold into Base Metals: Productivity Growth in the People's Republic of China during the Reform Period," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(6), pages 1220-1261, December.
    23. Alwyn Young, 1998. "Alternative Estimates of Productivity Growth in the NICs: A Comment on the Findings of Chang-Tai Hsieh," NBER Working Papers 6657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 2000. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386751, October.
    25. Kim Jong-Il & Lau Lawrence J., 1994. "The Sources of Economic Growth of the East Asian Newly Industrialized Countries," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 235-271, September.
    26. Desai, Mihir A. & Foley, C. Fritz & Hines, James Jr., 2006. "The demand for tax haven operations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(3), pages 513-531, February.
    27. Barro, Robert J, 1999. "Notes on Growth Accounting," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 119-137, June.
    28. Kee, Hiau Looi, 2002. "Markups, returns to scale, and productivity : a case study of Singapore's manufacturing sector," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2857, The World Bank.
    29. Carlos D.Ramírez & Ling Hui Tan, 2004. "Singapore Inc. versus the Private Sector: Are Government-Linked Companies Different?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 51(3), pages 510-528, November.
    30. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Singapore: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/103, International Monetary Fund.
    31. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 2000. "The Role of Foreign Direct Investment in East Asian Economic Development," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_00-2.
    32. Takatoshi Ito & Anne O. Krueger, 1992. "The Political Economy of Tax Reform," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number ito_92-2.
    33. Lee, Jong-Wha, 1996. "Government Interventions and Productivity Growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(3), pages 391-414, September.
    34. Charles I. Jones, 2003. "Growth, capital shares, and a new perspective on production functions," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
    35. Alwyn Young, 1992. "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 13-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    36. Ito, Takatoshi & Krueger, Anne O. (ed.), 1992. "The Political Economy of Tax Reform," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226386676, October.
    37. Vito Tanzi & Parthasarathi Shome, 1992. "The Role of Taxation in the Development of East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: The Political Economy of Tax Reform, pages 31-65, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    39. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2002. "What Explains the Industrial Revolution in East Asia? Evidence From the Factor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 502-526, June.
    40. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. John Fernald & Brent Neiman, 2011. "Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 29-74, April.
    2. Shu-Shiuan Lu, 2012. "East Asian growth experience revisited from the perspective of a neoclassical model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 359-376, July.
    3. Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2021. "Growth Accounting In Economic History: Findings, Lessons And New Directions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 670-696, July.
    4. Jones, C.I., 2016. "The Facts of Economic Growth," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 3-69, Elsevier.
    5. Hulten, Charles R., 2010. "Growth Accounting," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 987-1031, Elsevier.
    6. Chia-Hung Sun, 2005. "Productivity growth in East Asian manufacturing: a fading miracle or measurement problem?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 1-19.
    7. Li, Hongyi & Wei, Xiangdong & Xie, Danyang, 2009. "Competitiveness of the Hong Kong economy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 573-586, September.
    8. Hiau Looi Kee, 2005. "Productivity or Endowments? Sectoral Evidence for Hong Kong's Aggregate Growth," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 51-81, March.
    9. Chia-Hung Sun, 2006. "Imperfect Competition, Economic Miracle, and Manufacturing Productivity Growth: Empirical Evidence from Taiwan," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(3), pages 341-359, September.
    10. Jesus Felipe & John S.L. McCombie, 2013. "The Aggregate Production Function and the Measurement of Technical Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1975.
    11. Ho, Kong Weng & Hoon, Hian Teck, 2009. "Growth accounting for a technology follower in a world of ideas: The case of Singapore," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 156-173, March.
    12. Jakob B. Madsen* & Md. Rabiul Islam, 2012. "The Anatomy of the Asian Take-off," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, July.
    13. William R Kerr, 2018. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 32(1), pages 163-182.
    14. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    15. Sarath Delpachitra & Pham Van Dai, 2012. "The Determinants of TFP Growth in Middle Income Economies in ASEAN: Implication of Financial Crises," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 11(1), pages 63-88, June.
    16. Marcel P. Timmer & Ilya B. Voskoboynikov, 2014. "Is Mining Fuelling Long-Run Growth in Russia? Industry Productivity Growth Trends Since 1995," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 60(S2), pages 398-422, November.
    17. Aoki, Shuhei, 2012. "A simple accounting framework for the effect of resource misallocation on aggregate productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 473-494.
    18. Simone Bertoli & Francesco Farina, 2007. "The functional distribution of income: a review of the theoretical literature and of the empirical evidence around its recent pattern in European countries," Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID) University of Siena 005, Department of Economic Policy, Finance and Development (DEPFID), University of Siena.
    19. Park, Jungsoo, 2012. "Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 114-127.
    20. Ezra Oberfield, 2013. "Productivity and Misallocation During a Crisis: Evidence from the Chilean Crisis of 1982," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(1), pages 100-119, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Growth Accounting; Development Accounting; Asia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed006:785. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.