Recovery Before Redemption: A Theory Of Delays In Sovereign Debt Renegotiations
Negotiations to restructure sovereign debts are protracted, taking on average almost 8 years to complete. In this paper we construct a new database (the most extensive of its kind covering ninety recent sovereign defaults) and use it to document that these negotiations are also ineffective in both repaying creditors and reducing the debt burden countries face. Specifically, we find that creditor losses average roughly 40 per-cent, and that the average debtor exits default more highly indebted than when they entered default. To explain this apparent large inefficiency in negotiations, we present a theory of sovereign debt renegotiation in which delay arises from the same commitment problems that lead to default in the first place. A debt restructuring generates surplus for the parties at both the time of settlement and in the future. However, a creditor’s ability to share in the future surplus is limited by the risk that the debtor will default on the settlement agreement. Hence, the debtor and creditor find it privately optimal to delay restructuring until future default risk is low, even though delay means some gains from trade remain unexploited. We show that a quantitative version of our theory can account for a number of stylized facts about sovereign default, as well as the new facts about debt restructurings that we document in this paper. Finally, we argue that our findings shed light on the existence of delays in bargaining in a wider range of contexts.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +61 2 6125 4705
Fax: +61 2 6125 5448
Web page: http://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Burcu Eyigungor & Satyajit Chatterjee, 2008.
"Maturity, Indebtedness and Default Risk,"
2008 Meeting Papers
1001, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 11-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2009. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2009. "Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 0901, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2010. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 10-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006.
"Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable Debt, Interest Rates and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 10731, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates, and the current account," Working Papers 04-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007.
"Do Countries Default In "Bad Times"?,"
CAMA Working Papers
2007-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Gersovitz, Mark, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, April.
- Carlos Arteta & Galina Hale, 2006.
"Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
878, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Arteta, Carlos & Hale, Galina, 2008. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-69, January.
- Carlos Arteta & Galina Hale, 2006. "Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector," Working Paper Series 2006-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009.
"Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
- Natalia Kovrijnykh & BalÃ¡zs Szentes, 2007. "Equilibrium Default Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 403-446.
- Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2009-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.