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Sovereign Debt: A Review

  • Mark Aguiar
  • Manuel Amador

In this chapter, we use a benchmark limited-commitment model to explore key issues in the economics of sovereign debt. After highlighting conceptual issues that distinguish sovereign debt as well as reviewing a number of empirical facts, we use the model to discuss debt overhang, risk sharing, and capital flows in an environment of limited enforcement. We also discuss recent progress on default and renegotiation; self-fulfilling debt crises; and incomplete markets and their quantitative implications. We conclude with a brief assessment of the current state of the literature and highlight some directions for future research.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19388.

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Date of creation: Aug 2013
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19388
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  1. Bulow, Jeremy & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1989. "A Constant Recontracting Model of Sovereign Debt," Scholarly Articles 12491028, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Vincent R. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2012. "Debt Overhangs: Past and Present," NBER Working Papers 18015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  4. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "One reason countries pay their debts: renegotiation and international trade," Staff Reports 142, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  5. Martin Uribe & Vivian Yue, 2004. "Country spreads and emerging countries: who drives whom?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  6. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2006. "Sovereign risk and secondary markets," Economics Working Papers 998, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
  7. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 253-268, November.
  8. Dias, Daniel A. & Richmond, Christine & Wright, Mark L.J., 2014. "The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at ‘face value’?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 1-17.
  9. Quadrini, Vincenzo, 2004. "Investment and liquidation in renegotiation-proof contracts with moral hazard," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 713-751, May.
  10. Guido Sandleris, 2008. "Sovereign Defaults: Information, Investment and Credit," Business School Working Papers 2008-04, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
  11. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo, 2013. "International reserves and rollover risk," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 151, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  12. Gian Luca Clementi & Hugo Hopenhayn, 2002. "A Theory of Financing Constraints and Firm Dynamics," RCER Working Papers 492, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  13. Worrall, Tim, 1988. "Debt with potential repudiation," Discussion Papers, Series II 69, University of Konstanz, Collaborative Research Centre (SFB) 178 "Internationalization of the Economy".
  14. Miguel Fuentes & Diego Saravia, 2006. "Sovereign Defaulters: Do International Capital Markets Punish Them?," Documentos de Trabajo 314, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  15. Fernando Broner & Jaume Ventura, 2011. "Globalization and Risk Sharing," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 78(1), pages 49-82.
  16. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2004. "Defaultable debt, interest rates, and the current account," Working Papers 04-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  17. Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2013. "Debt dilution and seniority in a model of defaultable sovereign debt," Working Papers 13-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  18. Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1989. "Why a Stubborn Conservative Would Run a Deficit: Policy with Time-Inconsistent Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 325-45, May.
  19. Thomas Cooley & Ramon Marimon & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2003. "Aggregate Consequences of Limited Contract Enforceability," NBER Working Papers 10132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2007. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 13602, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Vivian Z. Yue, 2005. "Sovereign Default and Debt Renegotiation," 2005 Meeting Papers 138, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. Patrick J. Kehoe & Fabrizio Perri, 2002. "Competitive Equilibria With Limited Enforcement," NBER Working Papers 9077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Rustichini, A., 1998. "Lagrange multipliers in incentive-constrained problems," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 365-380, May.
  24. V.V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1989. "Sustainable plans and mutual default," Staff Report 124, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  25. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Mart�n & Stefano Rossi, 2012. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks and Financial Institutions," Working Papers 622, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  26. Martinez, Jose Vicente & Sandleris, Guido, 2011. "Is it punishment? Sovereign defaults and the decline in trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 909-930, October.
  27. Debraj Ray, 2002. "The Time Structure of Self-Enforcing Agreements," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 547-582, March.
  28. David Benjamin & Mark L. J. Wright, 2009. "Recovery Before Redemption: A Theory Of Delays In Sovereign Debt Renegotiations," CAMA Working Papers 2009-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  29. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1998. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Levine's Working Paper Archive 114, David K. Levine.
  30. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
  31. David Benjamin, 2008. "Recovery Before Redemption," 2008 Meeting Papers 531, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  32. Gabriel Cuadra & Horacio Sapriza, 2006. "Sovereign Default, Interest Rates and Political Uncertainty in Emerging Markets," Working Papers 2006-02, Banco de México.
  33. Michael Tomz & Mark L. J. Wright, 2007. "Do Countries Default in "Bad Times" ?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 352-360, 04-05.
  34. Kehoe, Timothy J & Levine, David K, 1993. "Debt-Constrained Asset Markets," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 865-88, October.
  35. Mauricio Drelichman & Hans‐Joachim Voth, 2011. "Lending to the Borrower from Hell: Debt and Default in the Age of Philip II," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(557), pages 1205-1227, December.
  36. Harold L. Cole & James Dow & William B. English, 1994. "Default, settlement, and signalling: lending resumption in a reputational model of sovereign debt," Staff Report 180, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  37. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
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  39. Tsyrennikov, Viktor, 2013. "Capital flows under moral hazard," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 92-108.
  40. Franz Hamann, . "Sovereign Risk and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Borradores de Economia 225, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  41. repec:dgr:uvatin:20110126 is not listed on IDEAS
  42. Juan J. Cruces & Christoph Trebesch, 2011. "Sovereign Defaults: The Price of Haircuts," CESifo Working Paper Series 3604, CESifo Group Munich.
  43. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011126 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2010. "Endogenous Borrowing Constraints and Stagnation in Latin America," 2010 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  45. Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Working Paper 08-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  46. Karsten Jeske, 2006. "Private International Debt with Risk of Repudiation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 576-593, June.
  47. Bai, Yan & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "Duration of sovereign debt renegotiation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 252-268.
  48. Alfaro, Laura & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2005. "Sovereign debt as a contingent claim: a quantitative approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 297-314, March.
  49. Adrien Verdelhan & Nicola Borri, 2010. "Sovereign Risk Premia," 2010 Meeting Papers 1122, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  50. Cruces, Juan J. & Trebesch, Christoph, 2013. "Sovereign defaults: The price of haircuts," Munich Reprints in Economics 20036, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  51. James Conklin, 1998. "The Theory of Sovereign Debt and Spain under Philip II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 483-513, June.
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