IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jgu/wpaper/1415.html

Foreign vs. domestic public debt and the composition of government expenditure: A political-economy approach

Author

Listed:
  • Philipp Harms

    (Department of Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universitaet Mainz, Germany)

  • Joachim Lutz

    (Department of Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universitaet Mainz, Germany)

Abstract

We consider an economy in which a political-support maximizing government takes into account different generations' preferences when deciding how much to borrow abroad and how much to spend on public consumption and investment. We show that, in equilibrium, the government's choices are shaped by three parameters: the effect of government spending on output, the expected output costs of a default, and the relative political weight of the generations currently alive. We conclude that the joint dependence on these parameters establishes a strong, but non-linear relationship between the share of foreign debt in total public debt and the share of investment in total government spending.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Harms & Joachim Lutz, 2014. "Foreign vs. domestic public debt and the composition of government expenditure: A political-economy approach," Working Papers 1415, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz, revised 20 Nov 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:1415
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://download.uni-mainz.de/RePEc/pdf/Discussion_Paper_1415.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eduardo Borensztein & Ugo Panizza, 2009. "The Costs of Sovereign Default," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 56(4), pages 683-741, November.
    2. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    3. Debora Di Gioacchino & Sergio Ginebri & Laura Sabani, 2005. "Public debt repudiation in a monetary union: the role of the geographical allocation of domestic debt," Working Papers in Public Economics 81, Department of Economics and Law, Sapienza University of Roma.
    4. Panu Poutvaara, 2006. "On the political economy of social security and public education," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(2), pages 345-365, June.
    5. Ganelli, Giovanni & Tervala, Juha, 2010. "Public infrastructures, public consumption, and welfare in a new-open-economy-macro model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 827-837, September.
    6. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2004. "Shifts in the Composition of Government Spending in Response to External Debt Burden," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1139-1157, July.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, May.
    8. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    9. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2010. "Sovereign Risk and Secondary Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1523-1555, September.
    10. Allan Drazen, 1998. "Towards a Political-Economic Theory of Domestic Debt," International Economic Association Series, in: Guillermo Calvo & Mervyn King (ed.), The Debt Burden and its Consequences for Monetary Policy, chapter 6, pages 159-178, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    12. Marco Battaglini & Stephen Coate, 2008. "A Dynamic Theory of Public Spending, Taxation, and Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 201-236, March.
    13. Marco Bassetto, 2006. "Politics and Efficiency of Separating Capital and Ordinary Government Budgets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 121(4), pages 1167-1210.
    14. Coughlin, Peter J. & Mueller, Dennis C. & Murrell, Peter, 1990. "A model of electroral competition with interest groups," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 307-311, April.
    15. Ugo Panizza, 2008. "Domestic And External Public Debt In Developing Countries," UNCTAD Discussion Papers 188, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    16. Kellermann, Kersten, 2007. "Debt financing of public investment: On a popular misinterpretation of "the golden rule of public sector borrowing"," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 1088-1104, December.
    17. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2012. "Domestic debt in Low-Income Countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(2), pages 1099-1112.
    18. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2012. "Rotten Parents and Disciplined Children: A Politico‐Economic Theory of Public Expenditure and Debt," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2785-2803, November.
    19. Pierre Yared, 2010. "Politicians, Taxes and Debt," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 806-840.
    20. S M Ali Abbas & Jakob E Christensen, 2010. "The Role of Domestic Debt Markets in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Low-Income Countries and Emerging Markets," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 209-255, April.
    21. Alper, C. Emre & Ardic, Oya Pinar & Mumcu, Ayse & Saglam, Ismail, 2008. "The welfare effects of government's preferences over spending and its financing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 1-12, January.
    22. Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Rafael A Portillo & Mr. Edward F Buffie & Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Luis-Felipe Zanna, 2012. "Public Investment, Growth, and Debt Sustainability: Putting together the Pieces," IMF Working Papers 2012/144, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Mark Aguiar & Manuel Amador, 2013. "Sovereign Debt: A Review," NBER Working Papers 19388, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Cukierman, Alex & Meltzer, Allan H, 1989. "A Political Theory of Government Debt and Deficits in a Neo-Ricardian Framework," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 713-732, September.
    25. Marco Bassetto, 2008. "Political Economy of Taxation in an Overlapping-Generations Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 18-43, January.
    26. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    27. Lindbeck, Assar & Weibull, Jorgen W., 1988. "Welfare effects of alternative forms of public spending," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 101-127, January.
    28. Kaas, Leo, 2003. "Productive government spending, growth, and sequential voting," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 227-246, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2015. "Politico-Economic Equivalence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 18(4), pages 843-862, October.
    2. Arai, Real & Naito, Katsuyuki & Ono, Tetsuo, 2018. "Intergenerational policies, public debt, and economic growth: A politico-economic analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 39-52.
    3. Tetsuo Ono, 2014. "Intergenerational Politics, Government Debt and Economic Growth," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 14-23, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    4. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Martín Gonzalez-Eiras & Dirk Niepelt, 2012. "Economic and Politico-Economic Equivalence," Working Papers 12.02, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
    6. Marco Bassetto, 2009. "The Research Agenda: Marco Bassetto on the Quantitative Evaluation of Fiscal Policy Rules," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 10(2), April.
    7. Marina Azzimonti & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2019. "International spillovers and `ex-ante' efficient bailouts," 2019 Meeting Papers 318, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Andrián, Leandro & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Urrea, Ivan Leonardo & Valencia, Oscar, 2024. "Fiscal rules and economic cycles: Quality (always) Matters," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    9. Marina Halac & Pierre Yared, 2022. "Fiscal Rules and Discretion Under Limited Enforcement," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(5), pages 2093-2127, September.
    10. Veronica Grembi & Tommaso Nannicini & Ugo Troiano, 2011. "Policy Responses to Fiscal Restraints: A Difference-in-Discontinuities Design," Working Papers 397, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    11. Waldenström, Daniel, 2010. "Why does sovereign risk differ for domestic and external debt? Evidence from Scandinavia, 1938-1948," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 387-402, April.
    12. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    13. Pablo D'Erasmo & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2016. "Distributional Incentives In An Equilibrium Model Of Domestic Sovereign Default," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 7-44, February.
    14. Vivian Norambuena, 2015. "Sovereign Debt Default: Are Countries Trapped by Their Own Default History?," Working Papers wp416, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    15. Guo, Yanling, 2015. "The role of lenders' trust in determining borrowing conditions for sovereign debt: An analysis of one-period government bonds with default risk," Economics Discussion Papers 2015-30, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Antonis Adam & Kostas Karanatsis, 2019. "Sovereign Defaults and Democracy," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(1), pages 36-62, March.
    18. Nelson Derrick Nguepi & Ibrahim Ngouhouo & Irina Bilan, 2024. "Foreign or Domestic Public Debt for Cameroon’s Development? An Externality Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-27, August.
    19. Baṣkaya, Yusuf Soner & Hardy, Bryan & Kalemli-Özcan, Ṣebnem & Yue, Vivian, 2024. "Sovereign risk and bank lending: Evidence from 1999 Turkish Earthquake," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    20. Ignacio Presno & Demian Pouzo, 2014. "Optimal Taxation with Endogenous Default under Incomplete Markets," 2014 Meeting Papers 689, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:1415. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research Unit IPP (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vlmaide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.