IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pia/review/v2y2011i3n2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

External Debt and Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Catherine Pattillo
  • Hélène Poirson
  • Luca Antonio Ricci

Abstract

This paper assesses the non linear impact of external debt on growth using panel data for 93 developing countries. The estimates support a non-linear, hump-shaped, relationship between debt and growth, especially when the debt burden is measured relative to GDP. For a country with average indebtedness, doubling the debt ratio reduces growth by a third to a half percentage point after controlling for endogeneity. Our findings also suggest that the average impact of debt becomes negative at about 160–170 percent of exports or 35–40 percent of GDP and the marginal impact of debt at about half of these values.

Suggested Citation

  • Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
  • Handle: RePEc:pia:review:v:2:y:2011:i:3:n:2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.rei.unipg.it/rei/article/view/45
    Download Restriction: Requires registration. Users must be registered and log in to access full text

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Debt Intolerance," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, pages 1-74.
    2. Daniel Cohen & Jeffrey Sachs, 1991. "Growth and External Debt Under Risk of Debt Repudiation," NBER Chapters,in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 437-472 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Chowdhury, Abdur R., 2001. "External Debt and Growth in Developing Countries: A Sensitivity and Causal Analysis," WIDER Working Paper Series 095, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Shuanglin Lin & Kim Sosin, 2001. "Foreign debt and economic growth," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(3), pages 635-655, November.
    5. Jean Imbs & Romain Rancière, 2005. "The Overhang Hangover," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-03, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Orlando Rubio M. & Jair Ojeda J. & Enrique Montes U., 2004. "Deuda Externa, Inversión y Crecimiento en Colombia, 1970-2002," Borradores de Economia 272, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-28.
    8. Michael Sarel, 1996. "Nonlinear Effects of Inflation on Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 199-215, March.
    9. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    10. Tornell, Aaron & Velasco, Andes, 1992. "The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: Why Does Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(6), pages 1208-1231, December.
    11. Tito Cordella & Luca A Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 05/223, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 253-268.
    13. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 777-792.
    14. Orlando Rubio M. & Jair Ojeda J. & Enrique Montes U., 2003. "Deuda Externa, Inversión Y Crecimiento En Colombia, 1970-2002," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002340, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    15. Krugman, Paul, 1988. "Financing vs. forgiving a debt overhang," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, pages 253-268.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    growth; external debt; debt relief; HIPC initiative;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pia:review:v:2:y:2011:i:3:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ubaldo Pizzoli). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/deperit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.