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Deuda Externa, Inversión y Crecimiento en Colombia, 1970-2002

Author

Listed:
  • Orlando Rubio M.

  • Jair Ojeda J.

  • Enrique Montes U.

Abstract

Este trabajo examina la relación entre la deuda externa, la inversión privada y el crecimiento para Colombia en el período 1970-2002. Se utilizaron dos especificaciones, una en donde las ecuaciones de crecimiento e inversión son lineales, y otra en la cual la relación entre deuda externa y crecimiento es de tipo curva de Laffer. Estas ecuaciones fueron estimadas simultáneamente mediante mínimos cuadrados en dos estapas con variables instrumentales. Los resultados indican que en la especificación lineal, la deuda externa como proporción del PIB tiene una relación negativa con el crecimiento en la cual un incremento de 5.6 puntos en el indicador de deuda se asocia con una caída de un punto en la tasa de crecimiento del producto. Adicionalmente, se encontró una relación cuadrática en la cual la deuda externa tiene un efecto negativo a partir de un nivel de endeudamiento de 27.1 puntos del PIB. Finalmente, se halló que la inversión privada está asociada directamente con el flujo de endeudamiento privado e inversamente con el endeudamiento externo público.

Suggested Citation

  • Orlando Rubio M. & Jair Ojeda J. & Enrique Montes U., 2004. "Deuda Externa, Inversión y Crecimiento en Colombia, 1970-2002," Borradores de Economia 272, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:272
    DOI: 10.32468/be.272
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
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    Cited by:

    1. Lavan Mahadeva & Javier Gómez Pineda, 2009. "The international cycle and Colombian monetary policy," Borradores de Economia 557, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).

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