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The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis of Mozambique

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  • António Afonso
  • Yasfir Ibraimo

Abstract

Public debt has been rising markedly over the years, which suggests an increase in public expenditure financed by debt instead of taxation. There is no consensus on the economic implications of borrowing to finance public expenditure. We assess empirically the macroeconomic effects of public debt for the case of Mozambique over the period of 2000Q1-2016Q4. We use a Vector Autoregression model to assess these effects through impulse response functions and variance decomposition. We conclude that debt service variables have much more negative effects on this economy than debt variables. Debt variables over the period of this study had no significant impact on the real output and the debt service component depressed the real output, increased the general price level and accounted for the depreciation on the domestic currency.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Yasfir Ibraimo, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis of Mozambique," Working Papers REM 2018/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    • Handle: RePEc:ise:remwps:wp0292018
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    Cited by:

    1. A.U. Aimola & N.M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Public Debt and Inflation: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," Working Papers AESRI-2021-06, African Economic and Social Research Institute (AESRI), revised Jan 2021.
    2. Jocelyne Zoumenou, 2023. "On the impact of fiscal policy on inflation: The case of fiscal rules," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    3. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2020. "Public Debt and Inflation: A Review of International Literature," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 9-24, June.
    4. Aimola Akingbade U. & Odhiambo Nicholas M., 2022. "Is the effect of public debt on inflation symmetric or asymmetric? Evidence from the Gambia," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 8(1), pages 41-57, June.
    5. Li Zhe & Serhat Yüksel & Hasan Dinçer & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Mayis Azizov, 2021. "The Positive Influences of Renewable Energy Consumption on Financial Development and Economic Growth," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, August.
    6. Charles Bahr & Lee Hui Shan & Alfred Lam, 2020. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Debt: An Empirical Analysis of Evidence from Canada," Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research, Scientific Publishing Institute, vol. 10(1), pages 1-9.
    7. Nur Hayati Abd Rahman & Shafinar Ismail & Khairunnisa Abd Samad & Bestari Dwi Handayani & Yozi Aulia Rahman & Wijang Sakitri, 2022. "The Effects of Regulatory Performance on the Debt–Growth Relationship: Cases of Upper-Middle-Income Economies," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-14, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic growth; External Debt; Domestic Debt; Total Debt Service; Variance Decomposition; Vector Autogression; Mozambique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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