Growth in a Time of Debt
We study economic growth and inflation at different levels of government and external debt. Our analysis is based on new data on forty-four countries spanning about two hundred years. The dataset incorporates over 3,700 annual observations covering a wide range of political systems, institutions, exchange rate arrangements, and historic circumstances. Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private)--which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half. Third, there is no apparent contemporaneous link between inflation and public debt levels for the advanced countries as a group (some countries, such as the United States, have experienced higher inflation when debt/GDP is high.) The story is entirely different for emerging markets, where inflation rises sharply as debt increases.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in American Economic Review|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.economics.harvard.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009.
"The Aftermath of Financial Crises,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
7209, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," Scholarly Articles 11129155, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Barro, Robert J., 1979.
"On the Determination of the Public Debt,"
3451400, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011.
"The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 319-350, 05.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "This Time It’s Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly-Preface," MPRA Paper 17451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Anastasia Guscina & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "Government Debt in Emerging Market Countries; A New Data Set," IMF Working Papers 06/98, International Monetary Fund.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003.
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,
Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 1-74.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8973.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hrv:faseco:11129154. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ben Steinberg)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.