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Risky public domestic debt composition in emerging economies



This paper explains why public domestic debt composition in emerging economies can be risky, namely in foreign currency, with a short maturity or indexed. It analyses empirically the determinants of these risk sources separately, developing a new large dataset compiled from national sources for 33 emerging economies over 1994-2006. The paper finds that economic size, the breadth of the domestic investor base, inflation and fiscal soundness are all associated with risky public domestic debt compositions, yet to an extent that varies considerably in terms of magnitude and significance across sources of risk. Only inflation impacts all types of risky debt, underscoring the overarching importance of monetary credibility to make domestic debt compositions in emerging economies safer. Given local bond markets' rapid development, monitoring risky public domestic debt compositions in emerging economies becomes increasingly relevant to global financial stability.

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  • Mehl, Arnaud & Reynaud, Julien, 2010. "Risky public domestic debt composition in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 1-18, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:1:p:1-18

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Essers & Hans J. Blommestein & Danny Cassimon & Perla Ibarlucea Flores, 2016. "Local Currency Bond Market Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Stock-Taking Exercise and Analysis of Key Drivers," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(5), pages 1167-1194, May.
    2. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2011. "130 Years of Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Currency Crashes in Advanced Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 683-716, November.
    3. Wang, Alan T. & Yang, Sheng-Yung & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2013. "Information transmission between sovereign debt CDS and other financial factors – The case of Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 586-601.
    4. Serkan Arslanalp & Tigran Poghosyan, 2016. "Foreign Investor Flows and Sovereign Bond Yields in Advanced Economies," Journal of Banking and Financial Economics, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 2(6), pages 45-67, June.
    5. Felipe Santos Tostes & Helder Ferreira De Mendonça, 2016. "Credibility On Pass-Through In Brazil," Anais do XLII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 42ndd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 022, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    6. Javier J. Pérez & Rocío Prieto, 2014. "The structure of sub-natural public debt: Liquidity vs credit risk," Working Papers 1403, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    7. Zirong Zhuo & Jixiang Liu & Wenmin Luo, 2016. "Credit Default Risk Assessment of Local Government Debts Based on KMV Model," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(5), pages 230-240, May.
    8. Mathieu Grobéty, 2017. "Government Debt and Growth: The Role of Liquidity," Working Papers 2017-13, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Helder Mendonça & Felipe Tostes, 2015. "The Effect of Monetary and Fiscal Credibility on Exchange Rate Pass-Through in an Emerging Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(4), pages 787-816, September.


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