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130 Years of Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Currency Crashes in Advanced Economies

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  • Marcel Fratzscher
  • Arnaud Mehl
  • Isabel Vansteenkiste

Abstract

This paper investigates the empirical link between fiscal vulnerabilities and currency crashes in advanced economies over the last 130 years, building on a new data set of real effective exchange rates and fiscal balances for 21 countries since 1880. The paper finds evidence that crashes depend more on prospective fiscal deficits than on actual ones, and more on the composition of public debt (that is, rollover/sudden stop risk) than on its level. The paper also uncovers significant nonlinear effects at high levels of public debt as well as significantly negative risk premiums for major reserve currencies, which enjoy a lower probability of currency crash than other currencies ceteris paribus. Yet, the estimates indicate that such premiums remain small in size relative to the conditional probability of a currency crash if prospective fiscal deficits or rollover/sudden stop risk are high.

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  • Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2011. "130 Years of Fiscal Vulnerabilities and Currency Crashes in Advanced Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(4), pages 683-716, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:59:y:2011:i:4:p:683-716
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    Cited by:

    1. Barry Eichengreen & Chitu Livia & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "Stability or upheaval? The currency composition of international reserves in the long run," Globalization Institute Working Papers 201, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    2. Mr. Luc Laeven & Mr. Fabian Valencia, 2018. "Systemic Banking Crises Revisited," IMF Working Papers 2018/206, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Chiţu, Livia & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 225-245.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    5. Douglas L. Campbell, 2014. "Through the Looking Glass: A WARPed View of Real Exchange Rate History," Working Papers w0210, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
    6. Campbell, Douglas L., 2016. "Measurement matters: Productivity-adjusted weighted average relative price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 45-81.
    7. Kose, M. Ayhan & Kurlat, Sergio & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "A cross-country database of fiscal space," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "The Aftermath of Financial Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 466-472, May.
    9. Douglas Sutherland & Peter Hoeller, 2012. "Debt and Macroeconomic Stability: An Overview of the Literature and Some Empirics," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1006, OECD Publishing.
    10. Hansen, Daniel, 2020. "The effectiveness of fiscal institutions: International financial flogging or domestic constraint?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Chitu, Liva & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2012. "When did the dollar overtake sterling as the leading international currency? Evidence from the bond markets (revised)," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3v03b36h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    12. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    13. Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabian, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: A Timely Update in COVID-19 Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 14569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Is the 2007 US Sub-prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 339-344, May.
    15. Yanping Zhao & Jakob Haan & Bert Scholtens & Haizhen Yang, 2014. "Sudden Stops and Currency Crashes," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 660-685, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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