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Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison

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  • Carmen M. Reinhart
  • Kenneth S. Rogoff

Abstract

Prva velika finansijska kriza u dvadeset prvom veku uključuje poverljive instrumente, neoprezne nadležne organe i nemirne investitore. Kriza takođe prati dobro poznatu putanju koju su utrli vekovi finansijskih besmislica. Da li je „specijalni” problem subprime hipoteka zaista drugačiji? Naše istraživanje dužih istorijskih iskustava, koje je deo šireg napora u izučavanju valutnih i dužničkih kriza, pokazuje izuzetnu kvalitativnu i kvantitativnu podudarnost između određenih standardnih indikatora finansijske krize. Recimo, snažan rast berzanskih indeksa i cena nekretnina u SAD, za koje su Graciela L. Kaminsky i Carmen M. Reinhart (1999) utvrdili da predstavljaju najbolje pokazatelje izbijanja krize u zemljama sa snažnim prilivima kapitala, blisko prati prosek iz prethodnih osamnaest bankarskih kriza u razvijenim zemljama nakon Drugog svetskog rata. Isti je slučaj sa realnim privrednim rastom u godinama pred izbijanje krize, koji prati putanju obrnutog slova V. Uprkos opštoj zabrinutosti u vezi sa uticajem smanjenja poreza početkom XXI veka na nacionalni dug, akumulacija američkog javnog duga je zapravo ispod proseka prethodnih kriznih epizoda. Nasuprot tome, putanja deficita tekućeg bilansa u SAD je značajno lošija. Sa ove vremenske tačke, još uvek je nepoznato kako će se tekući poremećaji u SAD odvijati. Posledice prethodnih kriza ukazuju da poremećaji mogu biti vrlo ozbiljni, što pre svega zavisi od jačine inijalnog šoka za finansijski sistem (i u određenoj meri, reakcija ekonomske politike). Prosečan pad (realnog per capita) rasta autputa je iznad dva posto, i obično je potrebno dve godine za povratak na dugoročni trend. U pet najgorih epizoda (krize u Finskoj, Japanu, Norveškoj, Španiji i Švedskoj), pad godišnje stope rasta je iznosio preko pet posto u periodu između vrha i dna ciklusa, i rast se zadržava značajno ispod trenda (pre nastanka krize) čak i nakon tri godine. Naravno, donosioci ekonomskih odluka upravo ovakve katastrofalne slučajeve nastoje izbeći. Ključne reči: Finansijske krize, Ekonomski rast, Javni dug.JEL: E44, F30, N20.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different?: An International Historical Comparison," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 56(3), pages 291-299.
    • Handle: RePEc:voj:journl:v:56:y:2009:i:3:p:291-299:id:221
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    Keywords

    Finansijske krize; Ekonomski rast; Javni dug;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative

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