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Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?

Author

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  • Norman Loayza
  • Amine Ouazad
  • Romain Rancière

Abstract

This paper reviews the evolving literature that links financial development, financial crises, and economic growth in the past 20 years. The initial disconnect—with one literature focusing on the effect of financial deepening on long-run growth and another studying its impact on volatility and crisis—has given way to a more nuanced approach that analyzes the two phenomena in an integrated framework. The main finding of this literature is that financial deepening leads to a trade-off between higher economic growth and higher crisis risk; and its main conclusion is that, for at least middle-income countries, the positive growth effects outweigh the negative crisis risk impact. This balanced view has been revisited recently for advanced economies, where an emerging and controversial literature supports the notion of "too much finance," suggesting that there might be a threshold beyond which financial depth becomes detrimental for economic growth by crowding out other productive activities and misallocating resources. Nevertheless, the growth/crisis trade-off is alive and strong for a large share of the world economy. Recognizing the intrinsic trade-offs of financial development can provide a useful framework to design policies targeting financial deepening, diversity, and inclusion. In particular, acknowledging the trade-offs can highlight the need for complementary policies to mitigate the risks, from financial macroprudential policies to monetary policy frameworks that monitor the growth of credit and asset prices.

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  • Norman Loayza & Amine Ouazad & Romain Rancière, 2018. "Financial Development, Growth, and Crisis: Is There a Trade-Off?," NBER Working Papers 24474, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24474
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    Cited by:

    1. Kozul-Wright Richard & Poon Daniel, 2018. "Asian development after the Asian Drama," WIDER Working Paper Series 135, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. repec:gam:jjrfmx:v:12:y:2019:i:1:p:20-:d:200638 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Saka, Orkun & Campos, Nauro F. & De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei & Martelli, Angelo, 2019. "Financial Crises and Liberalization: Progress or Reversals?," IZA Discussion Papers 12393, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. repec:gam:jsusta:v:11:y:2019:i:6:p:1713-:d:215920 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ch.-M. CHEVALIER, 2018. "Financial constraints of innovative firms and sectoral growth," Documents de Travail de l'Insee - INSEE Working Papers g2018-05, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques.
    6. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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