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Unintended side effects: stress tests, entrepreneurship, and innovation

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  • Sebastian Doerr

Abstract

Post-crisis stress tests have helped to enhance financial stability and to reduce banks' risk-taking. In order to quantify their overall impact, regulators have turned to evaluating the effects of stress tests on financing and the real economy. Using the U.S. as a laboratory, this paper shows that stress tests have had potentially unintended side effects on entrepreneurship and innovation at young firms. Banks subject to stress tests have strongly cut small business loans secured by home equity, an important source of financing for entrepreneurs. Lower credit supply has led to a relative decline in entrepreneurship during the recovery in counties with higher exposure to stress tested banks. The decline has been steeper in sectors with a higher share of young firms using home equity financing, i.e. where the reduction in credit hit hardest. Counties with higher exposure have also seen a decline in patent applications by young firms. I provide suggestive evidence that the decline in credit has negatively affected labor productivity, reflecting young firms' disproportionate contribution to growth. My results do not imply that stress tests reduce welfare, but highlight a possible trade-off between financial stability and economic dynamism. The effects of stress tests on entrepreneurship should be taken into account when evaluating their effectiveness.

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  • Sebastian Doerr, 2019. "Unintended side effects: stress tests, entrepreneurship, and innovation," BIS Working Papers 823, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:823
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    Cited by:

    1. Sebastian Doerr & Leonardo Gambacorta & José María Serena Garralda, 2021. "Big data and machine learning in central banking," BIS Working Papers 930, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Sebastian Doerr & Leonardo Gambacorta, 2020. "Covid-19 and regional employment in Europe," BIS Bulletins 16, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Doerr, Sebastian, 2018. "Collateral, Reallocation, and Aggregate Productivity: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Boom," MPRA Paper 106163, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Giulio Cornelli & Sebastian Doerr & Leonardo Gambacorta & Ouarda Merrouche, 2020. "Inside the regulatory sandbox: effects on fintech funding," BIS Working Papers 901, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Pliszka, Kamil, 2021. "System-wide and banks' internal stress tests: Regulatory requirements and literature review," Discussion Papers 19/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Hardy, Bryan & Sever, Can, 2021. "Financial crises and innovation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    7. Sumit Agarwal & Xudong An & Lawrence R. Cordell & Raluca Roman, 2020. "Bank Stress Test Results and Their Impact on Consumer Credit Markets," Working Papers 20-30, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Chen, Shu & Gambacorta, Leonardo & Huang, Yiping & Li, Zhenhua & Qiu, Han, 2020. "Data vs collateral," CEPR Discussion Papers 15262, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Nguyen, Thach Vu Hong & Ahmed, Shamim & Chevapatrakul, Thanaset & Onali, Enrico, 2020. "Do stress tests affect bank liquidity creation?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    stress tests; small business lending; entrepreneurship; innovation; productivity slowdown;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • L26 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Entrepreneurship

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