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The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets

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  • Brian S. Chen
  • Samuel G. Hanson
  • Jeremy C. Stein

Abstract

Small business lending by the four largest banks fell sharply relative to others in 2008 and remained depressed through 2014. We explore the dynamic adjustment process following this credit supply shock. In counties where the largest banks had a high market share, the aggregate flow of small business credit fell, interest rates rose, fewer businesses expanded, unemployment rose, and wages fell from 2006 to 2010. While the flow of credit recovered after 2010 as other lenders slowly filled the void, interest rates remain elevated. Although unemployment returns to normal by 2014, the effect on wages persists in these areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian S. Chen & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2017. "The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 23843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23843
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Charles W. Calomiris & Sophia Chen, 2018. "The Spread of Deposit Insurance and the Global Rise in Bank Asset Risk since the 1970s," Working Papers id:12909, eSocialSciences.
    2. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    3. Thomas Ian Schneider & Philip E. Strahan & Jun Yang, 2020. "Bank Stress Testing: Public Interest or Regulatory Capture?," NBER Working Papers 26887, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Franziska Bremus & Thomas Krause & Felix Noth, 2021. "Lender-Specific Mortgage Supply Shocks and Macroeconomic Performance in the United States," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1936, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Daniel García, 2020. "Employment in the Great Recession: How Important Were Household Credit Supply Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 165-203, February.
    6. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Gabriel Chodorow-Reich & Olivier Darmouni & Stephan Luck & Matthew C. Plosser, 2020. "Bank Liquidity Provision Across the Firm Size Distribution," NBER Working Papers 27945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Charles B. Perkins & J. Christina Wang, 2019. "How Magic a Bullet Is Machine Learning for Credit Analysis? An Exploration with FinTech Lending Data," Working Papers 19-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    9. Acharya, Viral V. & Berger, Allen N. & Roman, Raluca A., 2018. "Lending implications of U.S. bank stress tests: Costs or benefits?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 58-90.
    10. Zachary Bethune & Guillaume Rocheteau & Russell Wong & Cathy Zhang, 2020. "Lending Relationships and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Paper 20-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    11. Sergey Chernenko & Isil Erel & Robert Prilmeier, 2019. "Why Do Firms Borrow Directly from Nonbanks?," NBER Working Papers 26458, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bremus, Franziskus & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2021. "Lender-specific mortgage supply shocks and macroeconomic performance in the United States," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2021, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    13. Suzanne H. Bijkerk & Casper G, de Vries, 2019. "Asset-based lending," CESifo Working Paper Series 7662, CESifo.
    14. Jagtiani, Julapa & Lemieux, Catharine, 2018. "Do fintech lenders penetrate areas that are underserved by traditional banks?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 43-54.
    15. Yasser Boualam & Clément Mazet-Sonilhac, 2021. "Aggregate Implications of Credit Relationship Flows: a Tale of Two Margin," Working papers 801, Banque de France.
    16. Cortés, Kristle R. & Demyanyk, Yuliya & Li, Lei & Loutskina, Elena & Strahan, Philip E., 2020. "Stress tests and small business lending," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(1), pages 260-279.
    17. Guillaume Rocheteau & Tsz-Nga Wong & Cathy Zhang, 2018. "Lending Relationships and Optimal Monetary Policy," Purdue University Economics Working Papers 1306, Purdue University, Department of Economics.
    18. Gete, Pedro & reher, Michael, 2017. "Mortgage Supply and Housing Rents," MPRA Paper 82856, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Vitaly M. Bord & Victoria Ivashina & Ryan D. Taliaferro, 2018. "Large Banks and Small Firm Lending," NBER Working Papers 25184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. James R. Barth & Stephen Matteo Miller, 2018. "On the Rising Complexity of Bank Regulatory Capital Requirements: From Global Guidelines to their United States (US) Implementation," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(4), pages 1-33, November.
    21. Tim E. DORE & OKAZAKI Tetsuji & ONISHI Ken & WAKAMORI Naoki, 2020. "Firm Growth, Financial Constraints, and Policy-Based Finance," Discussion papers 20082, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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