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Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and "Normal" Economic Times

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Listed:
  • Michael Greenstone

    (University of Chicago)

  • Alexandre Mas

    (Princeton University)

  • Hoai -Luu Nguyen

    (MIT)

Abstract

We estimate the effect of the reduction in credit supply that followed the 2008 financial crisis on the real economy. We predict county lending shocks using variation in pre-crisis bank market shares and estimated bank supply-shifts. Counties with negative predicted shocks experienced declines in small business loan originations, indicating that it is costly for these businesses to find new lenders. Using confidential microdata from the Longitudinal Business Database, we find that the 2007-2009 lending shocks accounted for statistically significant, but economically small, declines in both small firm and overall employment. Predicted lending shocks affected lending but not employment from 1997-2007.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Greenstone & Alexandre Mas & Hoai -Luu Nguyen, 2014. "Do Credit Market Shocks affect the Real Economy? Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Great Recession and "Normal" Economic Times," Working Papers 584, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
  • Handle: RePEc:pri:indrel:584
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," CEP Discussion Papers dp1389, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    2. Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2018. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," NBER Working Papers 24329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Niepmann, Friederike & Schmidt-Eisenlohr, Tim, 2017. "No guarantees, no trade: How banks affect export patterns," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 338-350.
    4. Maarten de Ridder, 2016. "Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of Financial Crises on Output," Discussion Papers 1630, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    5. Kyle Herkenhoff & Gordon Phillips & Ethan Cohen-Cole, 2017. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings, and Entrepreneurship," Working Papers 2017-011, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    6. Kyle Herkenhoff & Gordon Phillips & Ethan Cohen-Cole, 2016. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Employment, Earnings and Entrepreneurship," NBER Working Papers 22846, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Gómez, Miguel García-Posada, 2018. "Credit constraints, firm investment and growth: evidence from survey data," Working Paper Series 2126, European Central Bank.
    8. Rudanko, Leena & Krusell, Per, 2015. "Unions in a frictional labor market," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86277, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Nuri Ersahin & Rustom M. Irani, 2015. "Collateral Values and Corporate Employment," Working Papers 15-30, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    10. Nuri Ersahin & Rustom M. Irani, 2015. "Collateral Values and Corporate Employment," Working Papers 15-30r, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    11. Miguel García-Posada Gómez, 2018. "Credit constraints, firms investment and growth evidence from survey data," Working Papers 1808, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    12. Jaeger, David A & Ruist, Joakim & Stuhler, Jan, 2018. "Shift-Share Instruments and the Impact of Immigration," CEPR Discussion Papers 12701, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. repec:fip:fedhep:00025 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. de Ridder, Maarten, 2016. "Investment in productivity and the long-run effect of financial crises on output," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86180, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Óscar Arce & Ricardo Gimeno & Sergio Mayordomo, 2017. "Making room for the needy: the credit-reallocation effects of the ECB’s corporate QE," Working Papers 1743, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    16. Ana P. Fernandes & Priscila Ferreira, 2015. "Financing Constraints and Fixed-term Employment Contracts: Evidence from the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis," NIMA Working Papers 58, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    17. Marieke Bos & Emily Breza & Andres Liberman, 2016. "The Labor Market Effects of Credit Market Information," NBER Working Papers 22436, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. David P. Glancy, 2017. "Housing Bust, Bank Lending & Employment : Evidence from Multimarket Banks," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-118, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Shai Bernstein & Emanuele Colonnelli & Ben Iverson, 2017. "Asset Allocation in Bankruptcy," NBER Working Papers 23305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Bremus, Franziska & Krause, Thomas & Noth, Felix, 2017. "Bank-specific shocks and house price growth in the U.S," IWH Discussion Papers 3/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    21. repec:ksa:szemle:1754 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Bidder, Rhys & Krainer, John & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2017. "De-leveraging or de-risking? How banks cope with loss," Working Paper Series 2017-3, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    23. Ursel Baumann & Melina Vasardani, 2016. "The slowdown in US productivity growth - what explains it and will it persist?," Working Papers 215, Bank of Greece.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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