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The Persistence of a Banking Crisis

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  • Kilian Huber

Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of bank lending on GDP and employment. Following losses on international financial markets in 2008/09, a large German bank cut its lending to the German economy. I exploit variation in dependence on this bank across counties. To address the correlation between county GDP growth and dependence on this bank, I use the distance to the closest of three temporary, historic bank head offices as instrumental variable. The results show that the effects of the lending cut were persistent, and resembled the growth patterns of developed economies during and after the Great Recession. For two years, the lending cut reduced GDP growth. Thereafter, affected counties remained on a lower, parallel trend. The firm results exhibit similar dynamics, and show that the lending cut primarily affected capital expenditures. Overall, the lending cut reduced aggregate German GDP in 2012 by 3.9 percent, and employment by 2.3 percent. This shows that a single bank can persistently shape macroeconomic growth.

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  • Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," CEP Discussion Papers dp1389, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp1389
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    Cited by:

    1. David Florian Hoyle & Johanna L. Francis, 2019. "Lending frictions and nominal rigidities: Implications for credit reallocation and TFP," Working Papers 142, Peruvian Economic Association.
    2. Doerr, Sebastian & Gissler, Stefan & Peydró, José Luis & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2018. "From Finance to Extremism: The Real Effects of Germany's 1931 Banking Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 12806, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Gete, Pedro, 2018. "Lending standards and macroeconomic dynamics," Working Paper Series 2207, European Central Bank.
    4. Jorge Abad & Javier Suarez, 2018. "The Procyclicality of Expected Credit Loss Provisions," Working Papers wp2018_1806, CEMFI.
    5. Sebastian Link, 2018. "Harmonization and Interpretation of the ifo Business Survey's Micro Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 7427, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Fabiano Schivardi & Enrico Sette & Guido Tabellini, 2017. "Credit misallocation during the European financial crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1139, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Giroud, Xavier & Mueller, Holger M, 2018. "Firm Leverage and Regional Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 13355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Sebastian Doerr & Stefan Gissler & José-Luis Peydró & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2018. "From finance to fascism: The real effect of Germany’s 1931 banking crisis," Economics Working Papers 1651, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 2019.
    9. Huber, Kilian & Lindenthal, Volker & Waldinger, Fabian, 2018. "Discrimination, Managers, and Firm Performance: Evidence from "Aryanizations" in Nazi Germany," CEPR Discussion Papers 13089, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    12. Andrea Linarello & Andrea Petrella & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Allocative Efficiency and Finance," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 487, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Francesco Manaresi & Nicola Pierri, 2018. "Credit supply and productivity growth," BIS Working Papers 711, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Florian, David & Francis, Johanna, 2019. "Lending frictions and nominal rigidities: Implications for credit reallocation and TFP," Working Papers 2019-002, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    15. Adão, Rodrigo & Kolesár, Michal & Morales, Eduardo, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," CEPR Discussion Papers 13118, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking crisis; financial frictions; lending; GDP; growth; employment;

    JEL classification:

    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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