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Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of Financial Crises on Output

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  • Maarten de Ridder

    () (Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM)
    University of Cambridge)

Abstract

This paper analyzes the channels through which financial crises exert long-term negative effects on output. Recent models suggest that a shortfall in productivity-enhancing investments temporarily slows technological progress, creating a gap between pre-crisis trend and actual GDP. This hypothesis is tested using a linked lender-borrower dataset on 519 U.S. corporations responsible for 54% of industrial research and development. Exploiting quasi-experimental variation in firm-level exposure to the 2008-9 financial crisis, I show that tight credit reduced investments in productivity-enhancement, and has significantly slowed down output growth between 2010 and 2015. A partial-equilibrium aggregation excercise suggests output would be 12% higher today if productivity-enhancing investments had grown at pre-crisis rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Maarten de Ridder, 2016. "Investment in Productivity and the Long-Run Effect of Financial Crises on Output," Discussion Papers 1630, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
  • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1630
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial crises; Endogenous growth; Innovation; Business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O30 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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